Safe offer vs dream role (but risky) — am I overthinking this?

Got two MBA intern offers and can’t tell if I’m being smart or just scared.

Option 1 — Big Tech PM (Safe)

• Strong brand, clear path
• High probability of full-time conversion
• Predictable, de-risked

Option 2 — SF Startup (What I Actually Want)

• Exact role I was aiming for post-MBA
• High ownership, real learning
• But low/uncertain conversion (they rarely hire for this)

The real dilemma:

• Safe = guaranteed outcome, slower pivot post h1
• Risky = right direction, uncertain landing

My biggest fear (and I don’t see people talk about this enough):
What if I love the startup role, do great work… and still don’t get a return offer because of market timing / headcount / randomness?

Then I’m back in the recruiting trap, explaining a non-converted role in a bad market.

Looking for blunt takes.