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After a slightly dry April, uncertainties prevail in May as various weather models predict different things right now.

Opinion/Fluff Post

Warning: Long post ahead

Tldr: Intermonsoon conditions have prevailed since early April and is expected to persist until late May/ early June. The MJO has finally ended and is expected to remain close to neutral for most of the month. The La Nina has officially ended as well and an El Nino is predicted to form in early June which tends to provide drier weather for us. Currently, there is a 75% chance a moderate El Nino will form, 50% of a strong one and a 25% chance for a super El Nino. The models may still be inaccurate but they slowly will pick up much more clarity soon and then we will see the situation unfold. For May, the models are inconsistent with some predicting above average (including MSS), while some are below average (including the ASEAN one). I currently think it will be mostly neutral for the month of May (around -40% to 60%, I know it is a large range but I have no choice, since everyone is inconsistent).

Let us look at April. April has been a significant improvement compared to March with an average anomaly of around -30.45% which puts us just over below average, most stations performed below normal but there were some good improvements in some areas. In the first 2 weeks, only 59.28 mm was recorded which is 51% below normal. The second fortnight was better with 111.72 mm which is 8% below normal

North: 193.6 mm (-22.91%)

West: 237.3 mm (-8.81%)

South: 121.3 mm (-48.70%)

East: 121.7 mm (-42.46%)

Central: 181.7 mm (-28.70%)

(Disclaimer: This is based on what I found in this image here **and made some estimates using the ranges provided here. So there may be a few inaccuracies. Also for simplicity sake, all the rainfalls normals would be based on the middle of the range given. So 110,130,150,170,190 and so on(except for Changi where exact details have been provided by MSS since it is the climate station))

Classification: Well-below average (-100% to -70%), Below Average: (-70% to -30%), Average (-30% to 50%), Above Average: (50% to 100%), Well-above Average (100% and above)**

NOTE: Brand new weather station names have been issued by MSS stating that from now on, the weather station names will be linked to the relevant street names. Additionally, I have consolidated all the stations into the 5 regions listed above, compared to the 9 earlier. This is for my current project which I am working on right now. Also there are now 70 weather stations in total.

Station NameRegionActual Rainfall (mm)Normal Rainfall (mm)Percentage Anomaly (%)
Bukit Batok Street 34West362.325044.92
Jurong West Street 73West337.627025.04
Choa Chu Kang Avenue 4West322.427019.41
Compassvale RoadNorth254.723010.74
Jurong Pier RoadWest298.127010.41
Changi Meteorological StationEast177.81704.59
Old Choa Chu Kang RoadWest2772702.59
Bukit Panjang RoadWest254.42501.76
Nanyang AvenueWest248250-0.80
Jurong West Street 42West283290-2.41
Tengeh ReservoirWest221.2230-3.83
Mandal Lake RoadNorth239.6250-4.16
Lim Chu Kang RoadNorth254270-5.93
Toa Payoh NorthCentral239.4270-11.33
Yishun Ring RoadNorth216.5250-13.40
Seletar Meteorological StationNorth216.4250-13.44
Murnane Service ReservoirCentral233.4270-13.56
Ang Mo Kio Avenue 10Central214.2250-14.32
Yio Chu Kang RoadEast212.8250-14.88
Yishun WalkNorth207.6250-16.96
MacRitchie ReservoirCentral224270-17.04
Bishan Street 13Central202.1250-19.16
Woodlands Centre RoadNorth193.6250-22.56
Woodlands Avenue 9North192.2250-23.12
Hougang Avenue 1East175.2230-23.83
Scotts RoadCentral174.8230-24.00
Somerset RoadCentral169.2230-26.43
Towner RoadCentral182.4250-27.04
West Coast RoadSouth177.6250-28.96
Woodlands Drive 62North176250-29.60
Sungei Kadut Street 3North173.2250-30.72
Ang Mo Kio Avenue 5Central171.2250-31.52
Upper Pierce ReservoirCentral182.8270-32.30
Kim Chuan RoadEast168250-32.80
Paya Lebar Meteorological StationEast153230-33.48
Sunset Way (ENV)West176.4270-34.67
Jalan NoordinEast135.4210-35.52
Pasir Ris Street 51East120.6190-36.53
Malan RoadSouth145230-36.96
Jalan Mata AyerNorth169.9270-37.07
Lower Pierce ReservoirCentral168.4270-37.63
Seletar ReservoirNorth155250-38.00
Kranji RoadNorth154250-38.40
South Buona Vista RoadSouth153.6250-38.56
Tuas South Avenue 3West139.6230-39.30
Pasir Panjang TerminalSouth150.2250-39.92
Banyan RoadWest149.2250-40.32
Kranji ReservoirNorth160.8270-40.44
Punggol CentralNorth136.8230-40.52
Nicoll HighwaySouth135.4230-41.13
Coronation WalkCentral147250-41.20
Pasir Panjang RoadSouth144.4250-42.24
Tampines Avenue 5East109.4190-42.42
Poole RoadEast113.6210-45.90
Clementi RoadWest144.8270-46.37
Margaret DriveSouth119.6230-48.00
Kent Ridge RoadSouth129.8250-48.08
Bukit Timah RoadCentral124.8250-50.08
Artillery AvenueSouth99.4210-52.67
Henderson RoadSouth104.7230-54.48
Botanic GardensCentral109.4250-56.24
Bedok ReservoirEast91.8210-56.29
Old Toh Tuck RoadWest108.8270-59.70
Marina BarrageSouth81210-61.43
Alexandra RoadSouth84.4230-63.30
Marine Parade RoadEast72210-65.71
Tanjong RhuEast71.2210-66.10
Changi East CloseEast61190-67.89
Semakau IslandSouth52230-77.39
East Coast ParkEast42.4190-77.68
Average-171242.68-30.45

Now, as we look at May 2026, there is still major conflicts in the data being provided. Even MSS and ASEAN cannot align themselves with both predicting different forecasts. I currently lean to ASEAN since they have been more accurate so far but it is still to close to decide. The MJO has finally died down and now is currently neutral. Additionally, now the winds will slowly shift to the West, bringing in some Sumatra Squalls but still will likely below normal at around 4 or less compared to 8. So right now, the range is large and I predict normal rainfall with a range of (-40% to 60%) for May.

Now, the Temps. Everyone has been talking about the heat and they are right on that. It has been significantly hotter than March. due to the intermonsoon weather.

Station NameAverage High /CAverage Low /C
Yishun33.7225.04
Pulau Ubin33.6725.39
Choa Chu Kang South33.5225.58
Admiralty33.3725.76
Clementi33.3225.94
Ang Mo Kio33.2626.26
Tai Seng33.1426.77
Newton32.9826.03
Changi32.9426.27
Jurong West32.7725.57
Sentosa32.3626.53
Tuas South32.2326.65
Jurong Island32.1526.35
Pasir Panjang31.8626.73
Semakau Island31.1227.00
East Coast Park30.6927.01
Average32.6926.18

The highest temperatures recorded in Apr 2026 is as shown below

Station NameDateTemperature
Tuas South Clementi25/04/2026 28/04/202635.5
Admiralty Choa Chu Kang South Yishun05/04/2026 13/04/2026 30/04/202635.3
Yishun Pulau Ubin Clementi Choa Chu Kang South01/04/2026 03/04/2026 23/04/2026 25/04/202635.2

The lowest temperatures recorded in Apr 2026 is as follows

Station NameDateTemperature /C
Clementi07/04/202622.9
Jurong West20/04/202623.3
Newton06/04/202623.5

Looking at May 2026, I am still using the ASEAN weather centre data since it seems to be mostly accurate for the region and according to it, we can expect higher than normal temperatures for most days with highs being around 33-34 on nearly all days with a few days exceeding 35 on a few days with less rain. Nights will be warmer with lows around 25-29 for most days unless heavy rainfall occurs where temperatures will fall to 23-25 and below 23 on a few occasions

Thank you for the read :)

Posted May 1, 2026, 11:30 AM UTC

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