HDFC Securities presented their biggest and most detailed ever view of the Indian Economy, the Global Factors. Its a whooping 40 page report outlined by proper charts, heatmaps, the investor behaviour and finally their picklist of stocks to accumulate. It was a very Insightful report and HDFC Securities must be commended for that. Now here is what they want to say to us:

# 1. Macro First – “Not too bad despite the war”

* GDP growth took a \~50 bps hit
* Inflation expected to rise to \~5%
* Fiscal deficit manageable
* **Achilles heel = Currency** – weak FPI flows, weak remittances, trade uncertainty

Earnings downgrades of 4-5% likely  
Broader markets can still deliver \~10% earnings growth

# 2. Valuations – Still elevated for mid/small caps, but…

* Median correction has been **brutal**
* Nifty 50 TTM P/E is now in **“buying zone”** but room for more de-rating
* India’s PE premium over EM peaked at 100%+ (April 2023), now down to **34%** – only 5th time since 2008

# 3. FPI outflows – Huge outflows unlikely, need triggers

* Absolute earnings growth not strong enough
* Valuation premium now at long-term avg
* DIIs (domestic institutions) have started **massive cash deployment** since March 2026
* Cash with MFs: **₹2 lakh crore+ (5.5% of AUM)**

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# 4. Market cycle – Nearing bottom

* Bear markets historically last \~20 months (range 11-32)
* We’re in the late pain phase

# 6. Model Portfolio – Key stocks they like

Underweight → Neutral → Overweight signals

|Sector|Stocks|
|:-|:-|
|Autos|Bajaj Auto, M&M, Bharat Forge, Hero, Samvardhana|
|BFSI|ICICI, Kotak, SBI, Axis, MCX, SBI Life|
|Consumer Staples|Marico, Godrej Consumer|
|Consumer Discretionary|Crompton, Swiggy, Syrma|
|Industrials|L&T, Cummins, NCC, Siemens Energy|
|Real Estate|Sobha|
|IT|Infosys, TCS, HCL Tech|
|Energy|Reliance, OIL, IOCL|
|Pharma|Aurobindo, Lupin|
|Power|NTPC, PowerGrid|

# 7. Bounce Back Basket 🔥 (stocks to accumulate in 2026)

These are beaten down names with recovery logic:

|Stock|Sector|Why bounce back?|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Hindustan Petroleum|OMC|Crude volatility easing → margin visibility|
|InterGlobe (IndiGo)|Aviation|Lower fuel costs + travel sentiment recovery|
|Larsen & Toubro|Infra|Down 20% on West Asia fears, 95% sites normal → re-rate|
|UltraTech Cement|Cement|Fuel/freight cost pressure to ease|
|Maruti Suzuki|Auto|Scale benefits + volume momentum|
|Bharat Forge|Auto/Defense|India-US deal → restocking opportunity|
|Asian Paints|Paints|Crude stability + demand uptick|
|Oberoi Realty|Realty|Premium housing demand, strong pipeline|
|Lemon Tree Hotels|Hotels|Discretionary spend recovery|
|Syrma SGS|EMS|Structural story, risk-reward improved|

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# 8. Retail investor behavior – What’s happening?

* Demat accounts: still growing
* SIP amounts: still flowing
* IPO activity: record levels
* Young investors (<30 yrs) now 38.4% of registered base (up from 22.6% in 2019)
* Median age of investor dropped from 38 to 33

The younger crowd is here to stay.

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Just a really good summary of a 40-page HDFC Securities report.

Drop your thoughts 👇 Which stock from the bounce back basket are you eyeing?

The Big Review 2026 by HDFC SECURITIES