Quick April recap before we get rolling into May. Screenshot of the last 30 days is up top (2026-04-01 to 2026-05-01).

So we noticed early on that our V1 record was a little rough on the EV side, and that's actually what kicked off the move to V2 mid-month. Just want to be upfront about that. We finished April at 48.9% on +EV plays (46-48), which is sub-50%, but if you split it out V1 was the one bringing that number down at 12-22 (35.3%). Since we made the switch, V2 is sitting at 34-26 (56.7%) on the same criteria, so the trend is back in the right direction and we feel good about where we're heading into May.

Directional accuracy held up though through both versions. We came in at 54.2% on the month (136-115, plus 138 no-opinion games where the probability sat at or below 50% and we didn't have a side). V1 finished at 89-76 (53.9%) and V2 at 47-39 (54.7%). So if you were just taking whichever side we had above 50% the entire month, you were better than a coin flip the whole way. Pretty encouraging that even when the EV plays were a little rough, the directional read was still holding.

Heading into May, really looking forward to seeing what V2 can do with a full month under it. Teams are starting to find their rhythms, pitchers are starting to settle in and stack some good outings, and that all tightens up the numbers on our end too. Plan is to drop a similar recap at the end of May so we keep this thing transparent month over month.

Appreciate everyone hanging with us through April. As always, best of luck on your plays heading into May.

April Model Recap