NBA Playoffs Analysis and Predictions

Conference SemiFinals:
OKC/LA- OKC in 5

No Luka early on so I have to assume OKC wins the first 2 games. It’s imperative LA wins the next two at home regardless of who is available if they want any semblance of a chance. If Luka is still not available OKC sweeps. This series is actually more interesting than people make it out to be with the confidence LA role players have had (and any LeBron James led team is an interesting watch) but OKC is the worst possible matchup for LA. I think Luka and AR reacclimating this late in the playoffs against the #1 seed reigning champ will be too much to handle. OKC in 5.

SAS/MIN- MIN in 6

Minnesota is doing something special here. They’ve already taken home court advantage. You can tell by the ball movement and fluidity they are maintaining that everything is clicking. Injuries have not slowed them down and you know they have the highest possible confidence after the circumstances and results of the Denver series. No one is bigger than the program and everyone is playing their role to perfection. Rudy is having a legacy playoff run, McDaniels playing the best basketball of his career and equally smothering defensively, Shannon’s speed adds extra offensive versatility. Antman has not been playing to his standards given injuries which makes this team even scarier. Spurs are a great team and well constructed but they still seem too youthful. You can tell in some of the mistakes they make and the way they let Minnesota dictate the game at times. They are the more talented team but Wemby is still a little too young and they are too reliant on 21yr old Castle and 20yr old Harper. It doesn’t help that Wemby is going up against his country mate and 4x DPOY Gobert who is exposing his offensive issues. This series will look a lot like DEN/OKC last year in terms of veteran and playoff experience vs a deep youthful team that’s better on paper. Unlike Denver Minnesota can play defense and they are looking to make 3 straight WCF. I expect Wemby to play better offensively moving forward but it won’t be enough. MIN in 6.

NYK/PHI- NYK in 6

New York seemed to be in dire straights against ATL going down 2-0 but they then rang off 4 straight wins. Their last 3 playoff wins have been 29, 51, and now 39 point win margins. They are playing their best basketball at the perfect time. 76ers starters have not had much game time all together on the court which will show this series and they will depend too much on Embiid who I don’t have full faith to stay healthy and available. NYK also have home court. I think Embiid, Maxey combo with support from PG13 and Edgecomb gets them a couple games. NYK in 6.

DET/ CLE- CLE in 6

Detroit barely made it out of the first round thanks to Cade Cunningham playing his best ball of the season against Orlando. Still, it’s been “Cade and Friends” so far in the playoffs which will not be tenable against a deep Cleveland team. Cleveland went to 7 in their 4/5 series with Toronto and it was a collective team effort to put that series away. They aren’t too reliant on Mitchell or Harden and they’ve been able to mesh together well despite the new arrival of Harden. I can’t say the same for DET who Cade has put on his back. Duren has been mostly MIA and has a lot to work on offensively this offseason. He’ll have his work cut out for him with Mobley and Allen. I don’t trust Tobias Harris to fill in the gaps. CLE in 6.

Conference Finals

OKC/MIN- OKC in 6

OKC is the best team in the NBA with the best player in the world. They’ve been the #1 seed 3 years in a row. Offensively SGA is unguardable and key players hit big shots when the double comes and they are called upon. They are mostly healthy outside of J Dub and everything has been clicking for them. HOWEVER, this Minnesota team matches up really well with OKC. They played them well in their regular season, they are very deep in the wings, physical and lengthy- their entire team plays defense and makes all the hustle plays. They have the depth to match OKC, but injuries have hit them at the worst time. Anthony Edwards is grimacing every other play, Ayo is missing time, and DiVencenzo is out for the season. I don’t expect them to be as rested as OKC who is just a tad bit deeper and healthier. I think the OKC defense also makes it extremely difficult on Randle and McDaniels who have been consistent so far but OKC defensively is another beast. There is no weak link to attack on OKC like Vassel/Jokic/Murray/Whole Nuggets Team and I don’t think they respond effectively enough. Minnesota is still a piece a way in my opinion especially with the injuries. Still I’m rooting for this team because they’re so fun to watch. OKC in 6.

NYK/CLE- NYK in 7

I think New York playing their best ball of the season at the right time factors into this a lot. They’ve shown they can handle athleticism which Cleveland has. I don’t think Cleveland has an answer for Brunson which is a bad starting point. Still I think their depth at big with Allen and Mobley being great defensively bodes well for them against KAT and a long, lengthy, athletic NYK team. I’m expecting Harden and Mitchell to give as much as they get. CLE has the 3PT shooting to keep up with New York’s offense. These teams matchup really well with each other and I expect them both respond to the call. At the end of the day I think NYK pull through and make the Finals as they have a little more chemistry and experience with each other and they’re playing great to end the season. NYK in 7.

NBA Finals

OKC/NYK- OKC in 5

I think New York’s run ends here. They don’t have the personnel to matchup with OKC and OKC matches up really well with them. They have the front court depth to handle Towns and Mitchell and the depth at wing to defend Brunson and an athletic NYK supporting cast. New York has no answer for SGA and unfortunately Brunson heroics won’t be enough. They can maybe win 1 game like that but it would take a collective team effort and near perfection from the rest of the squad to even keep it close with OKC throughout the series. I think Hack-a-Mitchell still being viable and OKC having the 2x MVP SGA means OKC will always have the superior answer to any Knick run. OKC’s biggest weakness has been being too reliant on SGA when the offense falters but that issue is a lot milder when they can just go at Brunson and KAT. Offense beats defense, but defense wins championships. New York won’t be able to get a stop when it matters most. This series might look a lot like DAL/BOS in 2024. OKC in 5.