The math behind Pop Count vs. Gem Rate: Updating my quant model (Moonbreon at $5,325 & Magikarp IR at $3,175)
Hey guys, some days have passed since I initially posted about my quantitative approach and my platform Hedonix.
Many of you told me that my model would be useless without factoring in pop count and gem rate. I took your feedback to heart and prioritized it for this update. I'm happy to announce that I've successfully updated the model to now being able to weigh in pop count and gem rate correctly which increased R2 to 0.91 (in-sample) and 0.87 (out-of-sample) while reducing median error by -23%. I am incredibly proud of these significant improvements.
While doing the math on this I've had some insightful findings that I wanted to share with you:
- Pop count is a demand signal, not supply: Contrary to what many think, pop count correlates positively with price. A massive pop count is actually an indicator of high liquidity and market attention, which drives a premium.
- Gem rate is the true scarcity signal: This is the actual supply metric. Prices correlate negatively with the gem rate. If a card is easy to grade, the market floods and prices drop.
What does this mean? If you are seeking long-term stability you should absolutely factor in both metrics, as one alone does not paint the whole picture. The structurally strongest cards are those with high pop count but low gem rate.
H6 v2 in action:
After updating the model the market premium for the two most overvalued cards rn (in my 350 card database) Magikarp IR Paldean Evolved and Sunbreon are cut in half. While still sitting at a high premium (150% at $3,175 for Magikarp and 80% at $5,325 for Sunbreon), the model now factors in a high demand (pop count) but relatively supply (gem rate).
Now you can decide: Is the updated market premium justified by having an outstanding artwork (which the model still can't value correctly) or is there just a high amount of hype priced in?
Thanks for reading! Remember I'm still looking for beta testers, so sign up if you want to use Hedonix.
Posted May 5, 2026, 5:21 PM UTC