How bad is a 1250 PSAT 10?

I’m a sophomore and I took a PSAT 10 practice test last November w/o studying and got a 1250 (650 R&W 580 Math), and I took the offfical PSAT 10 and I’m getting my results next week (I think I did bad and I took it w/o studying…regretting that a lot now).

I’m aiming for a national merit commended/semifinalist but I live in a very competitive state so I need at least a 1460 PSAT. I’m also hoping to a get a 1500+ (aiming for 1530) SAT.

I know that studying greatly improves your score but I can’t help but think that it’s really bad.

Am I cooked?