23yr old: Should I front-load house down payment savings?

I’m 23M and I’m trying to plan for a home purchase roughly 10 years from now, around age 33.

My goal is to buy a house that would be worth about $1,000,000 in today’s dollars. Assuming ~3% annual inflation/home price growth, I’m estimating that the future purchase price could be around $1.3M–$1.4M in 10 years. I’m targeting a fairly conservative cash goal of around 25% of the future purchase price, which would cover:

- 20% down payment
- closing costs
- escrow/moving/furnishing/repair cushion
- avoiding being house-poor immediately after closing

So I’m roughly thinking I need around $335k–$350k saved specifically for the house by age 33.

Income / career situation

I work in finance, making around 160k all-in in my first full year of working.

My compensation path through age 26 is relatively mapped out/high-confidence, can assume ~$270k floor, inflation adjusted. After that, it’s obviously more speculative, but I would assume ~$600k to $800k salary by age 33.

Situation Im Wresting with

I am considering three different strategies of saving for this down payment.

1. ⁠The Simple Option: Saving a fixed percent of my salary each year and placing it into my taxable brokerage account. The amount I save would scale with the amount I make.
2. ⁠Having a scaled percentage rate of savings. Saving less as a percentage now towards my housing fund and increasing it year by year, or every two years, as I get closer to the purchase date.

- I think this would give me more time to think about my decision, and gives me more of an opportunity to adjust. Who knows, maybe in 10 years from now I will wise up and just rent forever anyways. Would allow me to max out 401k in earlier years as well.

3. Opposite Approach: Front-load house savings now, while my marginal tax rate is lower, and then save less for the house later so I can contribute more aggressively to a pre-tax 401(k) when my income and marginal tax rate are higher?

- At my current income level, traditional 401(k) deductions are valuable, but probably less valuable than they will be later.
- If I delay too much of the house saving until later, I may be forced to save large after-tax dollars during my highest-tax years.
- But if I over-prioritize the house fund now, I might miss valuable years of tax-advantaged retirement compounding.

Questions

1. ⁠Am I overthinking the tax optimization and should I just save a fixed percentage across all goals?

For additional context: I already max out my HSA, will max out $7500 of Roth IRA, contribute 6% of my gross income to my 401k (employer match is 6%) and contribute some leftovers to the taxable brokerage account that I am using as my housing fund.