stop using RSI for bitcoin cycle tops. it doesn't work.

i keep seeing people trying to time the top using weekly RSI or MACD. look, btc isn't a normal stock. it can stay "overbought" on an RSI for like 6 months while the price doubles again. if you actually want to know when we're at a generational top, you have to look at the realized cap, not just the market price.

essentially, you want to look at the MVRV Z-score. it basically compares what everyone actually paid for their coins (realized cap) vs what they're worth right now. it's like a measure of aggregate "unrealized greed."

historically, once that z-score hits around 7, it means everyone is in so much profit that a massive distribution phase is mathematically inevitable. it nailed the 2013, 2017 and 2021 tops almost to the day. we're nowhere near that right now btw, so maybe stop stressing about every 5% dip.