On paper, the D Line should be a slam-dunk for Los Angeles mass transit.

It runs through the heart of the city, covering some of L.A.’s densest communities as well as landmarks like LACMA and the Academy Museum. Its stations are only a few blocks from the Grove and Beverly Center.

But getting Angelenos out of their cars and onto mass transit will likely be a challenge, and experts say the D Line could be a major test of whether adding rail in prime real estate can change behavior.

Success of the line, some say, will ultimately hinge on its utility, reliability and the inconvenience of alternatives — and it’s far from clear that calculus will make it a daily commute favorite, especially right away.

It needs to be “the best way to get around,” said Brian Taylor, a professor of urban planning and public policy at UCLA’s Luskin School of Public Affairs and a research fellow at the university’s Institute of Transportation Studies. That becomes the case, he said, when the rail line is convenient, timely and consistent, while driving becomes less attractive: Interstate traffic remains a challenge, parking options are expensive or limited and fuel prices remain high.

Some Metro lines have achieved this success. The A Line, which runs from Long Beach to the San Gabriel Valley, has long packed in passengers, with almost 17 million weekday riders a year in 2025, close to its pre-pandemic levels. But it is Metro’s oldest line, and runs through working-class communities that have long been dependent on mass transit.

The B Line, a subway that runs from downtown to the San Fernando Valley, recorded comparable ridership to the A Line last year, with almost 16 million weekday riders a year. But it remains far behind its pre-pandemic popularity, when more than 30 million rode the line annually.

The D Line will extend to Beverly Hills from downtown along Wilshire Boulevard when three new stations open Friday: Wilshire/La Brea, Wilshire/Fairfax and Wilshire/La Cienega. The route is supposed to eventually stretch all the way to Westwood, with four additional stations expected in 2027. Experts say its location will immediately afford it some advantages.

“This is the most densely populated corridor west of the Mississippi and it’s the most densely populated part of Los Angeles,” Ethan Elkind, director of the Climate Program at UC Berkeley’s Center for Law, Energy and the Environment, said. “Generally speaking, rail lines are successful when they serve densely populated areas.”

But location is not necessarily enough.

Jacob Wasserman, a research program manager at the UCLA Institute of Transportation Studies, worries long wait times, especially during off-peak hours, could deter riders.

“Late at night, you might not need the service you do \[in\] a rush hour,” he said. “But every 20 minutes! You come in, you see the next train is in 19 minutes, you take an Uber.”

D Line trains are supposed to run from 4 a.m to approximately 12:30 a.m. each day, coming every 10 minutes during most of the day and every 20 minutes during late night hours, which begin around 9 p.m., according to Metro officials.

A spokesperson for Metro said their team understands that frequent service “is key to making transit competitive,” but said the slower frequency at night is a starting point, given what “funding, staffing, and ridership allow.”

Most of the time, Metro officials estimate that the subway system will be faster than driving. A ride from Union Station to the Wilshire/La Cienega stop — what will be the farthest stop on the D Line — is estimated to take 21 minutes, while driving, according to Metro, takes about 45 minutes, and can take up to 70 minutes during rush hour times.

But when there’s no traffic, like late at night, Google Maps estimates the drive would also take about 20 minutes.

Metro officials, however, see the D Line expansion as an opening in a longer campaign.

“The more options we give Angelenos to get to where they want to go, the more likely they’re going to park their car and get on the \[rail\] system,” said Timothy Lindholm, Metro’s chief program management officer. “Every passenger that may use our system for a ride to the museum on the weekend, that’s a passenger we intend to make a Metro customer for life.”

There may also be additional steps Los Angeles can take to help transition the car-focused city into one that relies on its increasingly robust rail network.

Joshua Schank, a partner at transportation strategic advisory firm InfraStrategies and former chief innovation officer of Metro, said the city should consider easing driving demands with congestion pricing.

“The fact is that driving remains underpriced, parking remains underpriced, so people are using it more than they would if it were priced at market rates,” Schank said. “As long as that continues, you’re going to see more people in cars than we might like.”

The Times spoke with almost two dozen residents and commuters in Beverly Hills and Miracle Mile this week who overwhelmingly said they were open to trying the D Line extension, even if most also mentioned reservations.

George Reed lives near the Wilshire/Cienega station but works from home, so he won’t use the line to commute. But the 34-year-old said he would consider using the new stops to attend sporting events or shows downtown, “if it’s quicker than taking the \[Interstate\] 10,” he said.

Reed was hesitant about potentially long waits for the train, which he considered anything over 10 minutes. That would probably push him to call an Uber or Lyft, his current choice for traveling downtown.

Autumn Nyiri, on the other hand, plans to start using the new D Line stops as soon as they open, and regularly. She lives in Koreatown — blocks from a D Line stop — and works at the Petersen Automotive Museum, right across from the new Wilshire/Fairfax station.

“It’s like made for me,” Nyiri said of the expanded D Line. She currently shares a car with her boyfriend and they coordinate daily dropoffs and pickups, oftentimes inconveniencing one of them.

Helen Cnassi paused on her morning walk by the Wilshire/Cienega station to say that she was excited to try the new train — after all, she’s watched its construction for the last decade — but she isn’t sure how much she and her husband will actually use it. Her commute to the San Fernando Valley won’t be affected, but her husband works downtown — might he take it?

“I don’t think so,” Cnassi said, laughing, “because we have a car.”

But as she considered it further, she said he might take the line, “because parking is very messy downtown,” the 70-year-old said.

Outside the Wilshire/Fairfax stop, Rod Aissa, with his husband and two dogs, started to imagine how the new stop will bring new possibilities to their neighborhood — and Los Angeles as a whole.

“It makes us a fuller city,” Aissa, 64, said.

But many were also quick to bring up issues that could derail their support: not enough park-and-ride options, too many locations that still aren’t connected to the rail system, and of course, concerns about safety, which remains a major focus of Metro. In recent years, the department has worked to improve policing on trains and stations and put in place additional safeguards, such as its ambassador program, with some real success.

But some won’t be persuaded. One woman, who declined to give her name, looked almost disgusted as she passed the Wilshire/Cienega station, calling L.A. Metro “a total failure” when asked about the expansion.

She said the extension continues to take too long, and it’s still years away from reaching L.A.’s beaches.

“I’ll be dead before that ever happens,” she said, before crossing the street.

The Wilshire subway should be a slam dunk for L.A. But luring riders may be a challenge