Ran Buffett's top holdings through a NGDP correlation screen. What came back explains his portfolio better than most analyst reports.

Ran Buffett's publicly known holdings through a NGDP correlation screen. Here's what the data says about why he holds what he holds.

AXP: 93% revenue/NGDP, 83% FCF/NGDP, 7% True FCF yield. The most mechanically economy-tied cash flow machine in the entire Dividend Aristocrat universe. Every charge on an Amex card is a toll on nominal GDP growth. The screen didn't know it was Buffett's second largest position — it just found the best NGDP surfer.

KO: 78% revenue/NGDP, 18% FCF/NGDP. Revenue tracks the economy. FCF doesn't follow cleanly. He bought it in 1988 at a yield that made the wait worthwhile. At 1.5% True FCF yield today the screen passes. So would he, buying fresh.

CB: 10% True FCF yield, negative NGDP correlation. Countercyclical insurance. He's been accumulating it. The screen says it's the recession hedge in an otherwise growth-oriented book.

The meta-insight from the data: it's not "buy great companies." It's find businesses whose cash is mechanically tied to NGDP, buy them when the yield makes the wait worthwhile, hold while the economy compounds underneath you.

Adam Smith called it owning the "necessaries, conveniencies, and amusements of human life." Same idea, different century. https://cavemanscreener.substack.com/p/surfin-ngdp-owning-the-necessaries