Seven earnings reaction patterns, the mechanics behind each, and why the after-hours price is the least reliable signal of the night

Every quarter the same thing happens. Earnings drop. Prices move. Then some reverse. Then a different picture emerges days later.

Most people draw the wrong conclusions from each phase — because they don't know which layer of the market produced the price they're looking at.

I wrote a long-form breakdown of the mechanics: three participant layers, seven resolution patterns, and why the after-hours price is the least reliable signal of the night.

The most dangerous pattern — gap up, full reversal — looks identical to a normal fade-then-build for the first two hours. By the time the difference is visible, most people have already acted on the wrong read.

Academic citations included. The seven-pattern taxonomy is my own synthesis and I say so explicitly.

https://open.substack.com/pub/100kpages/p/the-first-price-is-a-machines-guess?r=80773p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Happy to discuss any of it in the comments. I'm looking for the kind of pushback that makes the work better.