Was there a change in rng?

I've been trying to do a semi RP semi meta German empire game, where I reform the German empire by taking Poland while building a new high seas fleet and then beat the British in the sea.

I used to do it a lot before, I think after the new German DLC but before either graveyard of empires or no compromise no surrender. It was really fun and easy back then cause more or less every territory demand would be conceded by the ai.

However when I've tried it recently the run always fails, Poland refuses any concessions except if the soviets demand it, even Lithuania has refused twice now. One run even had the Dutch deny the kaiser returning even though I still had my army. I remember Poland used to sometimes say no to the more extreme territory claims but not often the historical ones.

I wouldn't mind invading Poland, im by no means new to the game or struggle with the wars, it's just that Britain guarantees them which means fighting WW2 in 1937 with no fleet. I've tried improving relations with Poland, using diplomatic pressure, etc but nothing changes their mind