Quick context - I built [berniedaily.com](http://berniedaily.com),   
daily car price guessing game using real BaT and Cars and Bids auctions. 35k guesses tracked so far. Started looking at the data and there are two consistent traps people fall into.

**Trap 1: Cars that should be expensive but aren't.**

1988 Lamborghini Jalpa: median guess $284k, sold for $121k

2000 BMW Z3 M Roadster: median guess $41k, sold for $21.5k

2016 Mercedes-AMG GT S Coupe: median guess $80k, sold for $51k

A Jalpa is a Lambo. The Z3M wears the M badge. The AMG GT S has a twin-turbo V8. Players price the badge. The market prices the model.

**Trap 2: Cars that shouldn't be that expensive but are.**

2021 AMG GT Black Series P One Edition: median guess $288k, sold for $705k

2003 Lamborghini Murciélago 6-speed (manual): median guess $260k, sold for $680k

2014 G63 AMG 6x6 Brabus B63S-700: median guess $298k, sold for $915k

A P One badge on a Black Series turns it into a million-dollar collectible. A manual on a Murciélago doubles the price. If you don't know the badge, you miss the premium entirely.

What surprised me most is how confident the wrong guesses are. The Jalpa had 253 people guess and the median was $284k - that means half of them went even higher. That's not a few outliers. That's a real consensus that the market disagrees with.

What's a car you think the market has totally wrong right now?   
Either way - over or under?

After 35,000 guesses, I have data on what car people get wrong. Two patterns keep showing up.