On May 7, 2026, the United Kingdom held local elections, with more than 5,000 local council seats up for re-election, accounting for about one quarter of all seats. According to the official results released on May 10, the right-wing populist party Reform UK achieved a major victory, ranking first with 26% of the vote, winning 1,453 seats, and securing absolute majorities in 14 local councils.

Meanwhile, the currently governing Labour Party saw its number of seats fall by more than 50%, while the other major party, the Conservatives, also suffered major losses in both votes and seats. The radical left-wing Green Party saw a huge increase in seats, with a larger growth rate than Reform UK, though its share of the vote and total number of seats remained below that of Reform UK. Another important liberal party, the Liberal Democrats, saw slight increases in both votes and seats.

This marks a clear shift in the political direction of Britain and a dramatic transformation of its political landscape. It also means that populism has gained further momentum in the UK, while the traditional establishment has significantly declined. The rise of Reform UK is the most notable manifestation and result of this trend.

Reform UK was formerly known as the Brexit Party, whose main platform at the time was advocating Britain’s “decoupling” from the European Union. The party later gradually evolved into a right-wing populist “big tent” party based on white nationalism, populism, xenophobia, anti-establishment sentiment, and opposition to multiculturalism, bringing together various anti-establishment populists and groups.

The party is broadly similar in its core ideology and political orientation to other right-wing populist parties in Europe and the United States, such as the National Rally, Alternative for Germany, and Fidesz, though it also possesses certain “British characteristics.”

Compared with right-wing populist parties in other countries, Reform UK places greater emphasis on the uniqueness of the “Anglo-Saxon” people, separation from continental Europe, and opposition to the European Union. Its anti-immigration and exclusionary positions are also relatively stronger. Asian immigrants such as Indians and Chinese, as well as Muslims, who form sizable communities in Britain, are among the main targets of Reform UK. The opportunity for its rise came from the Brexit wave roughly a decade ago, echoing the rise of America’s “MAGA” movement and France’s “Yellow Vest Movement.”

The rise of British populism is, in fact, somewhat surprising. Traditionally, unlike the prevalence of radicalism in continental Europe, Britain has long been the major Western country with the weakest soil for populism and the strongest tradition of moderate democratic forces.

Whether in ideology or political tradition, Britain has long leaned toward “moderate conservatism.” In confronting social problems, reformist approaches such as “Fabianism” and the “Third Way” have been prevalent. British conservatism was also long dominated by the establishment-oriented Conservative Party, and Britain’s electoral system favored traditional major parties, leaving almost no room for populism.

From the early 20th century to the early 21st century, for more than a hundred years, British politics was essentially characterized by alternating rule between the Labour Party and the Conservative Party, each serving as the other’s opposition, with the Liberal Democrats functioning as an important third party. Regional parties in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales also held a place in politics. The rise of Reform UK, especially its major victory in this local election, has strongly impacted this tradition, ushering in what could be described as “changes unseen in a century” in Britain’s political landscape.

In previous years, Reform UK had already gained considerable public support, second only to Labour and the Conservatives. However, Britain’s electoral system elects all members of Parliament and local councils through single-member constituencies with plurality voting. This benefits the leading party in elections and parties with deep local roots, while disadvantaging parties with relatively high nationwide support but whose supporters are evenly dispersed across constituencies and whose organizational foundations are weaker.

As a result, although Reform UK had a fairly high support rate in previous elections, it struggled to gain seats. For example, in the 2024 British House of Commons election, Reform UK won 14.3% of the vote but secured only 5 out of 650 seats. Labour and the Conservatives still monopolized the House of Commons and most parliamentary and local council positions.

However, as Reform UK’s support rate continued to rise and surpassed Labour and the Conservatives in many constituencies, climbing into first place, its support and votes began to convert efficiently into parliamentary seats.

In the 2025 British local elections, Reform UK already achieved a remarkable victory, ranking first in vote share and surging from its previous 2% to 30%, winning 677 out of 1,641 contested seats, five times its previous number of local council seats. In this year’s elections, although Reform UK’s vote share slightly declined compared with 2025, it won even more seats and further expanded its advantage.

Although Labour and the Conservatives still hold more total local council seats than Reform UK because Britain only re-elects part of local councilors each year, based on election results and seat changes over the past two years, if Reform UK maintains its current momentum and support rate, it is highly likely to gain even more local council seats over the next two years and become the largest party in local government. If its public support remains stable, it could also secure more seats in the next parliamentary election and may even become the ruling party.

After the conclusion of the 2026 local elections, Reform UK newly gained control of 14 local councils. Combined with those it had already won previously, it is now able to exercise local governing power in more than 20 counties and districts.

This means Reform UK is no longer merely an opposition populist party that voices protests without the ability to determine policy. It is now a genuine ruling force capable of implementing policies such as anti-immigration, opposition to multiculturalism, and anti-environmental measures. If Reform UK wins control of more municipalities and eventually gains a parliamentary majority, it could implement its policies nationwide, fundamentally reshaping Britain’s political ecology as well as its domestic and foreign affairs.

The reason Reform UK has risen so powerfully, step by step evolving from a fringe party into a major political force and climbing to first place in support ratings, is due to a combination of internal and external factors. Among them, immigration issues and conflicts between different ethnic groups and cultures are the most direct and critical causes.

Traditionally, Britain has been a country dominated by white Anglo-Saxon ethnic groups, with Christianity as the primary religion of its people. During Britain’s colonial expansion from the 17th to the 20th century, which established the “Empire on Which the Sun Never Sets,” many people from colonized nations came to Britain to study and work, but relatively few settled permanently, and they often could not enjoy the same rights and status as native British whites.

Only after the development of globalization following World War II and the influence of anti-racist movements did Britain grant more non-white and non-Christian people British citizenship. In the 21st century, the promotion of multiculturalism and humanitarianism, combined with the practical demand for cheap labor, led Britain to accept more immigrants and refugees.

The new immigrants and refugees made Britain more diverse, increased its labor force, and promoted economic development, but they also brought many problems such as public security concerns, cultural conflicts, and disputes over interests. For example, Muslim communities practicing forms of “self-governance” based on Islamic law and customs, South Asian gang crime, and Chinese communities occupying educational resources and white-collar positions in Britain have all triggered dissatisfaction among native British whites, especially lower- and middle-class conservative whites.

In recent years, scandals involving Pakistani-origin criminals in Muslim communities grooming underage British girls into sexual exploitation, with more than 1,400 underage white girls reportedly victimized, and the government and police allegedly failing to intervene aggressively due to fears of ethnic tensions, have provoked especially strong anger among many whites.

In addition, Britain’s economic stagnation in recent years and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on people’s livelihoods have further intensified public dissatisfaction and anxiety, making immigrants and minorities even more likely targets of hostility. At the same time, anti-immigration sentiment has surged across the United States and continental Europe. Billionaire Elon Musk has openly supported Reform UK, criticized the establishment, and attacked Britain’s immigration policies and perceived tolerance of crimes committed by non-whites. This has further boosted the momentum of Britain’s conservative populist forces, whose support rates have steadily risen.

Of course, immigration is not the only issue. Many longstanding social problems and structural illnesses in Britain — such as persistent wealth and class inequality, corruption and inefficiency in bureaucracy, and dissatisfaction caused by pension and healthcare reforms under fiscal pressure — have also caused people to lose faith in the traditional establishment and turn toward populist forces such as Reform UK that promise to break the status quo. Compared with the “politically correct” rhetoric of traditional establishment politicians, the unconventional and provocative statements of populist politicians such as Nigel Farage are indeed more attractive.

In addition, many conservative voters are dissatisfied with the “multiculturalism,” feminism, environmentalism, and related agendas promoted by Labour and the left, while believing that the traditional establishment right represented by the Conservatives has been ineffective in opposing them. As a result, they have chosen to support more right-wing and radical anti-multicultural, anti-feminist, and anti-environmentalist forces such as Reform UK. This resembles the situation in the United States, where some voters, frustrated by the Democratic Party’s progressive policies, support the Republican Party, while the Republican establishment has gradually yielded ground to populist forces.

The British right-wing populist forces represented by Reform UK are, in essence, rooted in extreme nationalism and racial superiority. Their policies also include tax cuts and welfare reductions, opposition to environmental protection, and measures harmful to vulnerable groups. These are detrimental to fairness and harmony in British society and damaging to Britain’s long-term interests.

Although some of the populists’ criticisms of the establishment are valid, the remedies they offer carry severe side effects, and most problems ultimately remain unresolved. Issues such as wealth inequality and bureaucracy often continue to exist after populists take power and may even worsen.

Farage and other British populist leaders are similar to Donald Trump in that they rely on sensational rhetoric and attacks on the establishment to attract support. However, both their moral character and governing abilities are questionable, and if they govern, they are unlikely overall to bring beneficial changes to Britain.

Nevertheless, judging from the results of recent British elections, more and more Britons are choosing to vote for populist forces such as Reform UK. Not only did right-wing populists achieve sweeping victories, but the Green Party, representing the radical left and also possessing some populist characteristics, achieved results several times greater than its previous vote share and seat count in this election.

This means that left-wing voters are becoming more left-wing and right-wing voters more right-wing, with both sides moving toward extremism and populism, while the traditional establishment and centrist forces are shrinking dramatically. British politics is becoming increasingly polarized, and society will become more divided as well.

In this election, Britain’s two traditional major parties — the center-left Labour Party and the center-right Conservative Party — both saw dramatic declines in votes and seats, symbolizing the decline of the traditional establishment. In particular, the Labour Party, which represents center-left social democracy and long enjoyed support from the working class, suffered the largest seat losses, reflecting the decline of center-left social democracy and the shift of the working class.

Most of these workers chose to switch their support to Reform UK, reflecting how many British workers, like their American counterparts, have shifted from left to right, from supporting traditional establishment parties to embracing populism. The Conservative Party also faces the danger that conservative voters will abandon it for Reform UK, replacing the Conservatives as the political representative of the right-wing electorate. In short, both the center-left and center-right establishment camps are facing severe crises.

However, Britain’s future political trajectory is still not settled. Although populist forces represented by Reform UK are advancing aggressively and rapidly expanding their influence in politics, their advantage may not last long, nor are they guaranteed to become a national ruling party. Labour and the Conservatives possess deep roots and strong resilience. Although they have suffered setbacks for now, they still have a strong possibility of regaining support in various constituencies.

As Reform UK rises forcefully, Labour and the Conservatives may also, like the center-left and center-right forces in France confronting the far right, reach compromises and alliances in elections to jointly suppress Reform UK. In that case, Reform UK would face extremely difficult challenges. Likewise, whether the radical left-wing Green Party can continue breaking through in the future or will fade after a brief surge remains uncertain.

Britain’s long tradition of moderate conservatism may also restrain the further rise of far-left and far-right populism. During the several centuries since the birth of modern political systems and ideologies, continental Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America have all experienced many violent revolutions, upheavals, and populist waves, whereas Britain has remained comparatively stable. Before World War II, fascism rose across many countries, with fascist groups becoming active and even seizing power, yet British fascism failed to gain dominance.

Meanwhile, “Fabianism,” advocated by famous thinkers such as George Bernard Shaw and Bertrand Russell and promoted by certain politicians as a reformist social democratic path, enabled Britain to achieve social progress without revolution and with relatively little bloodshed, including the establishment of the globally respected National Health Service (NHS), with remarkable results. A Britain possessing such resilience may still be capable of containing populism.

Regarding the results of this election and the rise of populist forces such as Reform UK, if this had happened many years ago, the author would certainly have adopted a wholly negative critical stance. However, after experiencing more events and engaging in deeper reflection, the author now has more “sympathetic understanding” toward the rise of populist forces and a greater awareness and criticism of the flaws of the establishment and the current order. Simply labeling populist supporters as “ignorant” is an oversimplification, an evasion of the problem, and irresponsible.

Although the author still does not support populist forces and does not believe Reform UK or populist parties around the world can bring beneficial changes to their countries, the author does recognize and respect the public’s use of voting to express dissatisfaction with the establishment, their strong desire for change, and the voices of those who feel ignored. The public possesses its own consciousness and emotions, and populism is also a way of expressing emotions and achieving goals. Even if this may not be wise, from their perspective, supporting the establishment is not necessarily a good choice either.

Compared with ordinary people who, burdened by difficult livelihoods, troubles, and lack of prospects, desperately turn to populism as a “last resort,” Britain’s establishment and social elites bear greater responsibility and possess greater capacity to reflect upon themselves and the structural problems of British society, to better understand the hardships of ordinary people, to confront both longstanding illnesses and new problems of the current era, and to seek solutions beneficial to all sides while favoring the vulnerable. Only in this way can Britain hope to ease social divisions and prevent the country from sliding down a more dangerous path under populist rule.

(The author of this article is Wang Qingmin (王庆民), a Chinese writer based in Europe and a researcher of international politics.)

2026 British Local Elections: The Stunning Victory of Populists and the Decline of the Traditional Establishment — Populism Cannot Bring Happiness, but Social Elites Should Show Humility in the Face of Public Opinion