How big can the U.S. K-12 full-time virtual school market get?

I'm curious to get the perspective of the Reddit community.

Today there are probably 600K–700K full-time virtual school students in the U.S.

Following the pandemic, enrollment growth in certain states is actually accelerating, rather than receding back to pre-pandemic levels.

Pennsylvania cyber charter enrollment stands at about 4% of the state’s K–12 population, double than before the pandemic. And that number excludes district-run virtual programs. So the real penetration rate is closer to 5%.

So just applying this penetration rate to the 50M students in all US states gets you to 2M students. Assuming that the penetration rate in Pennsylvania eventually grows to 7%, that yields 3.5M students.

But some large states are politically or structurally unlikely to allow broad expansion of virtual schools. States like New York, California, Massachusetts, Connecticut, etc...

My hypothesis is that its probably closer to 5% -- 7% for unrestricted growth less 2% for policy restrictions in various states.

Curious how others think about this.

Exactly how big do you think the national enrollment get in let's say twenty years?

Is Pennsylvania a reasonable benchmark, or is it an outlier?

And do you think virtual school demand is mostly constrained by family interest or state policy?