This is a spot where the model is leaning Minnesota, but the EV board is more mixed than the matchup read.

The Spurs are the better overall team, but this number feels inflated based on how this series has actually played out.

Recent form:

• Spurs are 6-4 over their last 10    
• Timberwolves are 6-4 over their last 10    
• Spurs are 3-3 at home recently    
• Timberwolves are 2-3 on the road recently    
• Spurs are averaging 113.9 PPG    
• Timberwolves are averaging 109.3 PPG    
• Minnesota leads the season series 2-1  

The head-to-head is the biggest reason this spread feels too high.

Recent series results:

• Minnesota won 104-102    
• San Antonio won 133-95    
• San Antonio won 115-108    
• Minnesota won 114-109  

That is a 2-2 split in the last four matchups.

The one San Antonio blowout was massive, but outside of that game, these have been competitive. Three of the last four meetings were decided by 7 points or fewer.

That makes -10.5 a pretty big ask.

The player side matters too.

For San Antonio, Victor Wembanyama is the biggest problem Minnesota has to solve. If he controls the paint, protects the rim, and gets San Antonio easy buckets inside, the Spurs can absolutely separate.

De’Aaron Fox is also a huge piece. If he is getting downhill and creating pressure early, San Antonio’s offense becomes much harder to slow down.

For Minnesota, Anthony Edwards is the swing piece. If he plays aggressive and puts pressure on the Spurs defense, Minnesota has enough scoring to hang around. Rudy Gobert also has to make things difficult inside and keep San Antonio from completely controlling the glass.

Donte DiVincenzo is out with the Achilles injury, which hurts Minnesota’s rotation and spacing. But that absence has already been part of this series. Minnesota has still been able to win games without him, including the most recent 114-109 win.

The EV board is where this gets interesting:

• Spread EV: -14.10%    
• Total EV: -7.56%    
• Spurs ML EV: -22.88%    
• Timberwolves ML EV: +59.60%  

That is important.

The model lean is Minnesota +10.5, but the spread EV is negative. So this is not a clean spread value spot.

The strongest EV angle is actually Timberwolves moneyline at +59.60% EV, but that is obviously the riskier path because they have to win outright.

My read: San Antonio can win this game, but laying double digits against a Minnesota team that has already won two recent games in this matchup feels aggressive.

The key question is whether the Spurs’ one blowout was the real gap, or whether the tighter games are the better read on this series.

Lean: Timberwolves +10.5, but with negative spread EV

Best EV angle: Timberwolves ML +59.60% EV

I would be cautious with the total. The model has the total at -7.56% EV, so I would not force it.

San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves — May 13, 2026