5-22-26 NRFI Thread

Hi Everyone,

Happy Friday and an extended weekend for most of us. Want to run through today's slate. Quick heads up that I missed the early window game with the Astros and Cubs, so we will get into the rest of the board from here.

One name jumping off the page today is Nick Martinez sitting at 9-0, and he runs straight into Gerrit Cole making his first start of the season up in the Bronx. A few good arms going today, so let's break them down.

CLE @ PHI

Gavin Williams (7-3, riding a two game streak) versus Cristopher Sanchez (8-2, on a three game streak) and we are sitting at roughly 50% for NRFI. On the surface the pitcher records make this one look enticing, but the price is doing a lot of the talking. FanDuel has it around -155 and the other books are in the same range. What keeps me off it is the pitcher cards. Both guys are giving up close to a hit and a half in the first and neither is getting us a strikeout, so this is a sweat either way. You are probably watching at least one hit, maybe two, and just hoping it does not come around. Personally I am passing here, proceed with caution.

TB @ NYY

Nick Martinez (9-0) versus Gerrit Cole making his first start of the season, and the edge here is really a function of the price. FanDuel is showing even money, which is what is creating the value on paper. Couple notes: last time the Yankees saw Martinez they did not score in the first, but in their prior three game series against the Rays the Yankees put up a first inning run in two of the three. Cole's first start of the year is the big unknown for me. If your book has this anywhere on the minus side, call it -110 or worse, the edge is gone for you. I am leaning pass on the game itself, but I may poke around for a good price on Martinez to keep the Yankees off the board in the first.

PIT @ TOR

Bubba Chandler (7-2, coming off a loss) versus Kevin Gausman (9-1, coming off a win) and we are sitting at roughly 55% for NRFI. Price is around -130 right now and this one is teetering right on the edge line, but I like it enough to lean a play. Two good arms here. Despite the loss, Chandler looks strong in the first, close to a K and a half and only giving up around 0.6 of a hit, which is exactly what gets us out of the inning clean. The Blue Jays scored in the first last time out and this is the first time they see the Pirates this season. Gausman's pitcher card numbers are not blowing me away, but he keeps getting it done early. I am going 1U here.

Late and evening games:

At the time of posting a lot of the late and evening games do not have full lineups in yet, so I won't get too deep on them and any numbers can shift once the cards are official. No pitching matchup down there is screaming at me to grab a pre lineup price either. The one with a little interest is the Dodgers at the Brewers.

LAD @ MIL

Justin Wrobleski (5-2, on a four game streak) versus Logan Henderson (3-1, on a one game streak, making his fifth start so we have limited data). Henderson actually has pretty solid first inning strikeout numbers, but I am not in love with Wrobleski's first inning profile, and honestly betting against the Dodgers in the first is always rough just getting through that lineup. They have scored in the first their past two times out. Interesting, but I am watching this one rather than playing it pre lineup.

So the one I am actually playing today is Pirates at Blue Jays for 1U, with a possible Martinez sprinkle if the price is right. Let me know your favorite plays down below in the comments and best of luck today.