Options time decay
I was looking at FORM after today’s move. Stock is currently around $124.7, up about 8% today.
I have been building my algos for years now and they have a >80% win rate (so I’m confident because then I also do my own research). Currently trying to model for options. My models forecast range for the next 30days is roughly $128–$133, so I was comparing the Jun 18 $120 call versus the Jul 17 $120 call.
Earlier, the June $120 call was around $7.10 bid / $7.45 mid / $7.80 ask. After the move, it’s now around $12.70 bid / $13.00 ask, so the premium moved a lot even though the stock is still below my upper target range.
The part I’m trying to think through is the time value:
FORM at \~$124.7 means the $120 call has about $4.70 intrinsic value
The option is trading around $12.85 mid
So roughly $8+ is still time value
At expiration, breakeven for someone buying at $12.85 would be about $132.85
That makes the trade less attractive now than it was before the move, because my expected range is $128–$133. If FORM gets to $133 by expiration, the intrinsic value is only $13, so buying now doesn’t leave much room unless the move happens quickly and there’s still time value left.
The July $120 call mid was around $12.55 earlier, which gave a breakeven around $132.55, so July aligns better with a 30-day forecast but also eats most of the upside through premium.
Curious how others would think about this setup:
Would you still consider the June $120 call after today’s move?
Would a call spread make more sense given the target is capped around $128–$133?
Or is this now mostly a “wait for pullback” situation because the option has already repriced?
Not financial advice. Mostly trying to understand the option math, time decay, and whether the risk/reward still makes sense after the move.
Posted Jun 3, 2026, 1:37 AM UTC