Hey!

I wanted “a hit-rate list" to use as a build reference.

So I tried running a simulation in Python 1,000,000 times.

• Based on the attacker’s and defender’s Weapon Skill or Combat values, I ran 1,000,000 simulations each.
• The attacker’s +10 bonus is assumed to be included.
• In the table, the attacker is A and the defender is D, and the numbers show each side’s skill value.

	A30	A40	A50	A60	A70	A80	A90(A100 on right)
D10	29.6	39.5	49.5	59.5	69.5	79.5	89.5
D20	28.0	38.1	48.1	57.9	68.0	78.1	88.1
D30	25.3	35.64	45.6	55.6	65.7	75.6	85.5
D40	22.2	31.8	42.1	52.1	62.2	72.1	82.1
D50	19.35	27.8	37.2	47.7	57.7	67.7	77.8
D60	16.3	23.7	32.3	41.7	52.2	62.4	72.2
D70	13.3	19.8	27.2	35.6	45.1	55.8	65.7
D80	10.3	15.7	22.1	29.3	38.1	47.5	58.3
D90	7.3	11.7	17.2	23.7	31.1	39.5	49.0
D100	4.3	7.8	12.2	17.7	24.1	31.5	40.1

Baseline hit-rate guideline (early game)

With a starting weapon skill of 60 plus the attack bonus, you’ll hit at roughly a 50–60% rate. If you raise your skill with a weapon that has the Simple trait or with Weapon Master passive skills, you get roughly +10% hit rate per +10 skill.

The tougher the enemy, the more value you get from stacking skill

Because skill increases are closer to adding to hit rate than multiplying it, the higher the enemy’s Combat (i.e., the lower your base hit rate), the bigger the relative benefit of stacking hit rate.

Against a Combat 40 enemy, raising weapon skill from 70 to 90 increases hit rate by 1.31×.

Against a Combat 70 enemy, raising weapon skill from 70 to 90 increases hit rate by 1.456×.

Baseline dodge-rate guideline (early game)

Even with Dodge 10 at the start, at level 1 you can avoid nearly half of incoming attacks. The benefit of raising it up to Dodge 40 is, at least from a damage-mitigation standpoint, not that large. (Dodge heavily affects escape success rate and trap avoidance, so those benefits are probably the bigger deal.)

Equipping a parry weapon has about the same expected damage reduction as wearing Armor across your whole body

The expected reduction rate from blocking a 1D6 attack with Armor 1 is:

[(0/6+1/6+2/6+3/6+4/6+5/6)/6]/[(1/6+2/6+3/6+4/6+5/6+6/6)/6]=0.7142

So, to neutralize attacks from an enemy with attack skill 60 to a similar degree via dodging or parrying, you’d need to raise Dodge from 10 to Dodge 60. That’s tough to do with Dodge, but it’s achievable even on a freshly made character if you use a parry weapon.

If you have a parry weapon and run a Weapon Master + Tracher build, and pick up Hunter’s Mark at level 2, you can avoid over 60% of attacks even from a Combat 70 enemy. Converting that reduction rate into Armor, it’s:

[(0/6+0/6+1/6+2/6+3/6+4/6)/6]/[(1/6+2/6+3/6+4/6+5/6+6/6)/6]=0.428

which means it’s about the same as gearing your whole body in Armor 2.

How hard it is to secure hit rate

To maintain an 80%+ hit rate, even if the enemy’s Combat is low, you need an effective weapon skill of 90 including modifiers.

Also, even with an effective weapon skill of 100 including modifiers, against an enemy whose Combat is 80 due to Overseer, your hit rate drops below 70%.

If you want the Python code to simulate it, please check my blog.

[Ker Nethalas] Simulated attack hit rates 1,000,000 times each - Kaburanai Games