[SPC Update] Severe Weather Outlook (Issued: 6:51 AM CDT, June 03) | Today: Slight | Tor: 5% (CIG 1)

Full Forecast and Technical Discussion: SPC Convective Outlooks

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Day 1 Outlook — Issued: 6:51 AM CDT, June 03

Categorical Map: https://preview.redd.it/4msr5p8aj25h1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=ec80993983c1cc09f3b5b579bc2c51a7aa098667

Tornado/Prob Map: https://preview.redd.it/eooxeocaj25h1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c73b9b3f71d2a0460a949c8e59e6c9745a357e4

Forecast Valid From: Mar 3, 7:00 AM CST — Mar 4, 6:00 AM CST

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...

SUMMARY: Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into southern New Mexico.

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Day 2 Outlook — Issued: 12:30 AM CDT, June 03

Categorical Map: https://preview.redd.it/xp8nqrwaj25h1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c759f4529936408f64b7b2698f56cd1e298b0c7

Tornado/Prob Map: https://preview.redd.it/7n2t504bj25h1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=96ae2d71d00009d29be8d9a61da6726d42120ce5

Forecast Valid From: Mar 4, 6:00 AM CST — Mar 5, 6:00 AM CST

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

SUMMARY: Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and damaging winds are possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes.

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Day 3 Outlook — Issued: 3:48 AM CDT, June 03

Categorical Map: https://preview.redd.it/bjnlvyjbj25h1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=497fec7ff4d0b5d20d6f06b187ff701c6543d073

Probability Map: https://preview.redd.it/rzwn19rbj25h1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=d5a8fe956ba5d4e0af2a008f17db5af147a3c933

Forecast Valid From: Mar 5, 6:00 AM CST — Mar 6, 6:00 AM CST

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...

CORRECTED FOR ERRONEOUS GEOGRAPHICAL REFERENCE

SUMMARY: Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are expected Friday afternoon into night across portions of the upper Midwest into central Plains.

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Day 4-8 Extended Outlook

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Forecast Valid From: Mar 6, 6:00 AM CST — Mar 11, 7:00 AM CDT

Model guidance is in good agreement in the progression of a short-wave trough from the Great Lakes into Northeast, with a strong upstream system moving through the Canada Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, a mid-level low will track through the southern and central Plains. In the low levels, a cold front is forecast to move through the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, while a lee cyclone deepens over the northern High Plains along a separate cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.