Certs>Projects?

We all know that real work experience trumps anything.

However, lately I've been thinking experience > certs > projects

My thinking of certs>projects is that with the abundance of AI vibe-coded projects, it can be hard for a recruiter to tell if you're competent based on your resume. However, passing a cert exam, while not as good as real experience, would at least signal a baseline competence.

I am looking to switch careers from data analyst to data engineer and have primarily been focusing on projects, with little success.

Does anyone else feel the same?