Everyone's asking why gold isn't spiking during the war. The more interesting question is why crypto is.

The textbook says war in the Middle East = gold spikes.

Gold is at $4,341. Down 17% since the conflict actually started in February. Down again today with missiles in the air over Saudi Arabia.

Here's what the textbook didn't update: gold's correlation with the S&P 500 is now the same as Bitcoin's. Robin Brooks flagged it June 5. Gold is trading like a high beta risk asset. The safe-haven autopilot is off.

Now look at what's actually catching a bid today.

BTC +2.54%. ETH +5.47%. ZEC +12.6%, Zcash surging as the privacy coin narrative resurfaces specifically because people are pricing censorship-resistance risk, not just macro fear.

BlackRock put out research showing BTC underperforms gold in the first 10 days of a crisis but significantly outperforms over 60 days. We're well past day 10 on this conflict. BTC ETF inflows have been positive three months running while gold ETFs are still working through outflows.

The ZEC move is the most interesting signal to me because it's not correlated with BTC or ETH, it's a standalone narrative play. Geopolitical heat gets high enough and suddenly censorship-resistant, non-surveillable assets have a genuine use case argument, not just a speculative one.

The capital rotation story isn't fully written yet. But the data is pointing somewhere specific.

Is anyone else positioned around this thesis or am I reading too much into one session?