Thinking of switching from banking to teaching in Ontario (York/Ontario Tech B.Ed) is GTA job market actually as competitive as people say?

Hi everyone,
I’m a 30 year old living in the GTA and currently working full-time in banking. I have a Bachelor of Science from UofT (Mental Health major, Philosophy/Sociology minors). I’m seriously considering a career switch into teaching and I’m trying to get a realistic understanding of the pathway and job market before applying to a B.Ed program.
I’m mainly looking at York University and Ontario Tech (possibly others like Queen’s or Brock).
I’ve been hearing two very different narratives:
On Reddit and from some teachers: GTA job market (especially TDSB) is very competitive and it can take years to get permanent work
From general sources: there is a teacher shortage in Ontario and strong demand
I’m trying to understand what the actual reality is right now (2026).
Specifically, I’d really appreciate insight on:
How hard is it currently to get hired into TDSB/TCDSB as a new graduate?
Is supply teaching still very saturated in Toronto?
Are certain divisions (Primary/Junior vs Intermediate/Senior) more employable right now?
Would Ontario Tech (16-month program) vs York make any meaningful difference in job prospects?
If I don’t mind starting in supply/LTO work, is it still a stable long-term career path?
Any advice for someone leaving a stable corporate job to enter teaching at 30?
I’m not looking for “follow your passion” answers . I’m trying to make a grounded decision based on current realities in Ontario schools.
Thanks in advance to anyone willing to share honest insight.