DBWI: The Second American Civil War never occurs

The Second American Civil War is commonly sighted as part of the reason for Axis victory for World War 2, and with good reasons to. From 1933 to 1940, the US lost 10% of her entire population and much of that was centered around the industrialized Steel Belt where most of the fighting was (though obviously wasn't just).

Pennsylvania I believe, lost around 40% of its entire population counting migration. America was in such a sorry state that when the Jappanese invaded the Philipines in 1941, she even almost lost Hawaii and was forced to negotiate.

But what if that didn't happen? Say Norman Thomas never rose in power or win the election (though there were reports of fraud) or the Federalists didn't take it upon themselves to arrest Thomas for these supposed frauds, what would have happened? Could the Allies have won the war with an intact America?

OOC: A Double-Blind What If (or, DBWI) is a type of alternate history “What If” written as if the thread starter and commenters are from an alternate timeline where a stated event unfolded differently from the way it did in our timeline. The participants discuss the topic from the point of view of this alternate timeline, the details of the timeline being filled in through the conversation.