I ran a 10,000-sim Monte Carlo of the 2026 World Cup - model says Argentina 19.7%, France 15.5%. Where's it disagreeing with the market?

Built a model that plays out the full 48-team World Cup (groups → R32 knockout) ten thousand times — Poisson goal model on Elo-derived team strength — and aggregates each team's title probability , while also refreshing every day with each match as and when they are played , tried and tested on other sports as well :-

| Team | Model win % |

|---|---|

| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 19.7% |

| 🇫🇷 France | 15.5% |

| 🇪🇸 Spain | 11.5% |

| 🏴 England | 9.1% |

| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 7.4% |

| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 6.6% |

| 🇵🇹 Portugal | 6.5% |

Curious where this lines up vs current market pricing — the model looks higher on Argentina and lower on a couple of the host-nation/popular books than I'd expect. Anyone see obvious edges or think the Elo priors are off?

It's open-source and you can re-run it yourself with any seed/iterations (or ask an AI to): github.com/Ninjabeam20/SportIQ-MCP