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Euronotus

95S (Invest — Southwestern Indian) (Southeast of Madagascar)

▲ Subtropical Storm | 40 knots (45 mph) | 1003 mbar

Update

As of 4:00 AM East Africa Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a broad area of low pressure with subtropical characteristics has formed well to the east-southeast of Madagascar. Recent scatterometer data reveals that a small area of tropical storm-force winds are present to the south-southwest of the disturbance’s low-level center, associated with some flaring deep convection. Environmental conditions are highly unfavorable for development, with strong vertical wind shear and cold sea-surface temperatures. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that this system will transition into a tropical cyclone. Instead, this system is likely to remain in a largely quasi-stationary state within a weak steering environment until it gets carried away by the polar front jet later in the week.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) continues to monitor this system via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Latest observation

As of 4:00 AM East Africa Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 31.7°S 50.5°E
  • Forward movement: S (180°) at 7 km/h (4 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 75 km/h (40 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1003 millibars (29.62 inches)
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Subtropical Storm
  • Intensity (FMS): Disturbance

Relative position

  • 862 kilometers (536 miles) southeast of Tsiombe, Atsimo-Andrefana (Madagascar)
  • 883 kilometers (549 miles) southeast of Lavanono, Atsimo-Andrefana (Madagascar)
  • 949 kilometers (590 miles) southeast of Ampanihy, Atsimo-Andrefana (Madagascar)

Outlook

As of 4:00 AM East Africa Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Development potential (next two days)

  • Météo-France: very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center: very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Model consensus (FSU): very low (less than 5 percent)

Development potential (next seven days)

  • Météo-France: very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center: very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Model consensus (FSU): very low (less than 5 percent)

Information sources

Météo-France

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

Posted Jun 11, 2026, 2:31 AM UTC

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