Making implied probabilities tangible: I turned World Cup match odds into a spinnable wheel. Does "experiential" probability actually fix how casuals read a 70% favorite?

The World Cup opener prices Mexico at ~69%, draw ~20%, South Africa ~10% (Polymarket implied probabilities). Casual fans read that as "Mexico wins" — the classic compression of anything >70% into certainty.

I built a wheel where each outcome's slice is sized exactly to its live implied probability and the spin is uniformly random, so spin frequencies converge to the market's numbers. The hypothesis (borrowed from work on hypothetical outcome plots) is that experiencing draws from the distribution beats reading a static percentage.

Two things I'd love this community's take on: (1) should I normalize the three outcomes to sum to exactly 100% before sizing slices, or display the raw market prices and show the overround? (2) is there a better way to visualize how the odds move pre-match — line chart of implied probability over time, or something smarter?

Tool is free if anyone wants to poke at it (link in comments).