Economic Data Calendar — June 11, 2026
Three major releases today, two at the same time. Here's the structured breakdown with market implications.
2:15 PM MYT — ECB Rate Decision
Expected: +25 bps hike to 2.25% (from 2.00%)
Market-implied probability: 100%
The ECB held at 2.00% in April but signalled clearly that the energy inflation shock from the Middle East conflict had changed its calculus. Eurozone headline CPI hit 3.0% in April, driven by a 17%+ energy spike. Short-term inflation expectations rose sharply while longer-term measures remained anchored — the classic setup for a "hawkish hike with a pause signal."
The hike itself is already priced. The EUR/USD move will come from the press conference: how many additional hikes does Lagarde signal? Hawkish guidance (2–3 hikes by year-end) would push EUR/USD toward 1.17–1.18. A "one and done" tone would fade the initial EUR spike.
8:30 PM MYT — US PPI (May 2026) + US Initial Jobless Claims
PPI Forecast: ~+0.5% MoM | Previous: +1.4% MoM, +6.0% YoY
Jobless Claims Forecast: ~218K | Previous: 225K
April PPI was the highest since 2022, largely energy-driven. May should show some moderation as oil prices pulled back from the Iran-shock highs. But even a cooler print leaves the YoY rate elevated, which gives the Fed no room to ease. If PPI surprises to the upside, it compounds yesterday's CPI signal and pushes rate hike probability above 20%.
Jobless claims last week hit 225K — the highest since February. A further rise would be the first sign that the labour market is cracking under tighter credit conditions. Markets would read that as softening the case for a Fed hike, which could briefly support risk assets and gold.
Market outlook across asset classes:
Gold: Bearish bias as long as inflation data stays hot. Structural floor from 19 months of central bank buying. Watch $4,300 as near-term support.
EUR/USD: Hike priced, Lagarde tone is the trade. Range 1.15–1.20.
USD: Net direction depends on the PPI-claims combination. Both hot = USD rallies. Both soft = USD weakens.
USD/MYR: ~4.06. Mild USD strength expected. BNM fixing at 11:30 AM MYT.
BTC: Extreme Fear (8/100). Trading ~$63K. High-impact macro days remain risk-off for crypto until sentiment recovers.
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Posted Jun 11, 2026, 2:45 AM UTC