20z (2:00 pm CDT) SPC Update - Previous forecast remains on track for tonight

   ...20z Update...
   *The previous forecast remains mostly on track with only minor
   adjustments made.* Across the Midwest, latest GOES imagery shows
   gradual clearing across southern IA/northern MO/western IL behind a
   decaying MCS. Surface observations across southern IA show some
   degree of air mass recovery is ongoing; however, *the quality of
   destabilization with northeastward extent remains very uncertain
   given more extensive cloud cover*, additional precipitation, and the
   rapid approach of the cold front from the west. 

   Nonetheless, regional 18z RAOBs and VWPs are sampling the approach
   of a 60-70 knot mid-level jet, which heralds the onset of stronger
   synoptic ascent across the upper MS Valley. Southerly low-level flow
   should strengthen through the evening in response to increasing
   ascent, which will likely help advect higher theta-e air
   north/northeastward as well as begin to augment low-level SRH.
   Recent MRMS composites show the onset of convective initiation along
   the cold front, which *should maintain sufficient residence time
   within the returning theta-e plume for further strengthening over
   the coming hours.* Latest high-res ensemble guidance (including WoFS
   and time-lagged HRRR/RRFS solutions) appear to be capturing these
   trends well and *continue to depict the corridor of highest severe
   wind and tornado threat across the Moderate risk zone.* As such,
   little change was made to the ongoing probability and intensity
   contours.