I built a free interactive simulator for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

It simulates all 104 matches, including the 12 groups, the eight best third-placed teams, the official knockout bracket, the third-place match and the final.

The prediction system considers recent international form, FIFA and Elo ratings, squad strength, offensive and defensive performance, tournament experience and other team-level indicators.

It combines multiple models to estimate expected goals, then generates realistic scorelines using calibrated Negative Binomial distributions and a Dixon-Coles correction for low-scoring matches.

I ran 100,000 complete tournament simulations to estimate each team’s chances of:

* Finishing in each group position
* Reaching every knockout round
* Making the final
* Winning the World Cup

Each simulation launched on the website is a newly generated scenario. It is influenced by the aggregate Monte Carlo results but can still produce upsets, unexpected runs and high-scoring matches.

The interface is available in English and Italian, and every match can be opened to inspect probabilities, expected goals and the simulated result.

I’d really appreciate feedback on the model, probability balance, interface and bracket presentation.

**Live demo:** [https://pplomith.github.io/world-cup-2026-simulator/](https://pplomith.github.io/world-cup-2026-simulator/)

I built an interactive 2026 World Cup simulator based on 100,000 Monte Carlo tournament runs