My World Cup 2026 Experiments based on Mathematics - Part 2 @ 13 Jun 2026
Yesterday the model suggested backing South Korea, and that one landed. Today the model found another small edge on USA v Paraguay. It gives USA around 48.4% chance, while the market price around 2.14 implies about 46.5%, so the edge is small but positive after commission.
As this is still beta testing, I kept the stake tiny.
Initial balance: £500.00
| Date | Match | Bet placed | Result | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jun 2026 | South Korea v Czechia | BACK South Korea @ 2.72, £2 | Won | £503.37 |
| 13 Jun 2026 | USA v Paraguay | BACK USA @ 2.14, £1 | Pending | £503.37 |
If USA does not win, ending balance would be:
£502.37
The idea is not to promise winners. It is to look for small probability edges, record everything honestly, and avoid blind gambling.
Still beta. Tiny stakes, full tracking, no hype.
PSI
Posted Jun 12, 2026, 11:57 PM UTC
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