Could the Gulf States become economically developed without oil and gas?

I think a lot about how developed nations share very similar culture. There are 3 groupings of developed nations i have identified:

  1. The West- North America, Europe and Oceania (Caucasian culture)

  2. East Asia- China, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan (Oriental culture)

  3. Gulf States- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (Arabs)

To sidetrack, India was also a highly advanced civilisation throughout history but was thoroughly exploited and didnt exactly start off from a clean slate like China did (which led to extensive reforms supporting economic development).

Historically (post 500 BCE), these 3 cultures were the leading civilisations (in conventional terms) at any point of time. Today, they are the most economically developed countries in the world.

I dont think much needs to be said about how the west became industrialised and developed.

East Asia became developed through state capitalism + FDI from the west and strong political will.

What puzzles me is the Gulf States. The Gulf States are flushed with cash and own the largest sovereign wealth funds in the world. They are arguably richer on a per capita basis than East Asia. However, it seems to me there are significant weaknesses in their economic structure.

Their economic complexity appears far lower. They don't seem to be investing the cash into economic advancement, e.g. developing massive industrial sectors (outside of O&G facilities) and research, design and development in other areas. Instead, they seem to own a lot of foreign assets. They primarily depend on imports (for lack of manufacturing), dont have a mature tech sector, and depends mainly on oil for export earnings.

UAE is the exception with a much more diversified economy, though oil still constitutes a large share of its economy. The way I see it, UAE is the logistics and financial hub of the Middle East, but still severely lacking in manufacturing and R&D. Singapore is also a major logistics and financial hub but it also has advanced manufacturing, biotech and trading of all kinds of commodities.

This brings me to the question: Could the Gulf States have successfully developed if they did not have oil and gas? East Asia has proven they can given how resource starved they are. But they also have centuries of experience in nation building as they weren't colonised.

Posted Jun 13, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC

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