The Strait of Hormuz reopening might be the most underrated macro shift this week — and it's already showing up in price.

When tensions in the Middle East were escalating, the dollar caught a strong bid as a safe-haven and net-energy-exporter currency. Speculative long positions on USD hit their highest levels since early 2025. The logic was simple: rising oil meant rising inflation risk, which pushed Fed rate-cut expectations off the table and even brought hike talk back into the conversation.

Now that the conflict has eased and oil has dropped sharply off its highs, that whole chain of logic starts to unwind. Lower oil points toward lower inflation pressure, which puts the Fed back on a path toward resuming cuts rather than holding or hiking.

Meanwhile on the euro side, despite weaker growth forecasts out of Germany, there's an argument that expectations are now so low that it's easier for the eurozone to surprise to the upside.

Net effect: a lot of those long-dollar positions built up during the conflict may start getting unwound, which tends to be supportive for EUR/USD.

Curious how others are reading this shift, do you think the dollar's safe-haven premium fades quickly here, or does it take longer to unwind?

*Not financial advice, just sharing concepts for discussion.*

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar: Why EUR/USD just lost its biggest headwind