EIA diesel drops at 10:30 this morning. Here's how to use that number.

The last confirmed reading was $5.059 per gallon for the week of June 15. Down 15 cents from the week before. GasBuddy's data shows the most common diesel price motorists are seeing right now is $4.99 per gallon. The median is $5.49. There's a wide spread depending on where you are and who you're buying from.

EIA's own quarterly forecast, published June 9, says diesel averages $5.00 per gallon in Q3 and $4.59 in Q4. So the direction is clear. We're tracking that forecast almost exactly right now. The question today is whether the deal and the crude drop show up in the June 23 number or whether there's still a lag.

Here's something most people missed in the EIA June report.

Since March, the United States has been exporting an average of 6.2 million barrels per day of petroleum products. That's a record. Countries that used to get diesel through Hormuz are buying it from the US instead. Europe. Asia. The entire import disruption from the war got redirected to American refineries and American export terminals. That's part of why US diesel prices stayed as high as they did even as WTI moved around. US supply was going overseas to fill the gap.

As Hormuz normalizes, that export premium comes off. US diesel should ease faster than the EIA's current forecast assumes, if Hormuz traffic keeps building.

Watch for the 10:30 number. Here's what each scenario means:

If EIA prints above $5.10: the pump hasn't caught up to crude yet. Hold FSC. Call your shippers Tuesday with the actual number rather than guessing.

If EIA prints $4.90 to $5.10: direction confirmed, pace still moderate. Start the FSC conversation this week. Effective date next Monday.

If EIA prints below $4.90: call your shippers before noon. This is the number that moves contracts.

What this means depending on where you sit:

**Broker:** you've been waiting for this number all week. Have three versions of the FSC conversation ready before 10:30. One for each scenario above. The brokers who call their shippers with the actual data at 11am win. The ones who wait for shippers to call them lose the framing.

**Owner-operator:** diesel coming down is real but your load rate is not tied to diesel directly. The capacity market is separate. If someone tries to renegotiate your rate today because EIA dropped, remind them that DAT spot rates release tomorrow and that's the number that drives load pricing.

**Shipper:** today is the day to have the FSC conversation. Come with the EIA number, come with your contract terms, and come with a specific ask. The brokers who have been managing this well will meet you halfway. The ones who haven't will be defensive. You'll know immediately which you have.

**Dispatcher:** fuel costs are easing. Factor that into your week's planning but keep conservative estimates on any lane with fuel cost sensitivity until the Q3 average establishes itself.

Two numbers this week:

Today June 23: EIA diesel USA. The FSC trigger. 10:30 ET.

Tomorrow June 24: DAT spot rates. The capacity trigger.

The direction is clear. Today we find out the pace.

Sources: YCharts/EIA week of June 15, EIA June STEO June 9, GasBuddy June 22, Rigzone April 17.

pulse.ambry.io