Bernstein forecasts prediction markets could trade $1 trillion a year by 2030. But there’s a problem.  
  
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲’𝘀 𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝘁.  
  
Frankly, that bothers me.  
  
I’ve seen the same thing happen in web3, AI and Industry 4.0: buyers, users and market participants being left to work out the truth, by which time the damage is done.  
  
𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗶𝘁𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵-𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗯𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹.  
  
I don’t want to see prediction markets take years to learn the same lesson, and all the bad decisions, misplaced confidence and avoidable harm that comes with that.  
  
So I’ve decided to channel my traditional finance & web3 experience to do my bit to help explain what’s missing.  
  
And it's probably best to start with the ecosystem itself.  
  
The first step to understanding what’s going on is knowing what job each part of the market is doing.  
  
So, here’s my first pass. Things are moving fast and several players cover more than one layer:  
  
Assymetrix: prediction-market intelligence / analytics  
Chainalysis: compliance / market integrity  
Chainlink: oracle infrastructure / data feeds  
Clear Street: institutional FCM / market access  
CME Group: regulated event contracts  
Crypto.com: regulated prediction products / access  
DraftKings / DKeX:  prediction-market app / exchange  
FanDuel Predicts:  regulated event-contract app  
FinFeedAPI:  prediction-market data / API  
ForecastEx:  regulated event exchange  
Good Judgment Open:  forecasting community  
Interactive Brokers:  multi-venue event-contract access  
Jump Trading:  institutional trading / liquidity  
Kalshi: regulated prediction-market venue  
Limitless: onchain prediction market  
Manifold: social forecasting / play-money prediction market  
Marex: institutional brokerage / market access  
Metaculus: forecasting community  
Myriad: onchain prediction market  
Oddpool: market data / odds comparison  
Polymarket: prediction-market venue  
PolyRouter: prediction-market data / API aggregation  
PredictIt: political prediction market  
Predictive Labs: prediction-market intelligence / data infrastructure  
ProphetX: CFTC-approved sports-native exchange  
Robinhood: event-contract access  
Stand: aggregator / trading terminal  
Susquehanna: institutional trading / liquidity  
Trading Technologies: institutional execution connectivity  
UMA: oracle / resolution infrastructure  
  
The ecosystem is moving quickly, and I’m limited on space here.  
  
So, to the people out there who know this industry well, tell me: are there any glaring omissions? Are the role tags right? Which layer deserves a deeper explainer next, do you think?  
  
I’ll keep refining this as I go.  


Prediction Market Ecosystem - Explainer