We are running it back for a second straight night at Truist Park and the model has a very clear reason why. Last night's setup was a question mark on both sides of the ball. Tonight is not. Chris Sale on the mound changes everything.

Sale comes in at 8-6 with a 2.10 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and 109 strikeouts against just 22 walks across 90 innings. He is pitching at home, where Atlanta has gone a combined 51 and 35 on the season, and he is squarely in the NL Cy Young conversation heading into the All-Star break. His last 11 consecutive outings have each featured at least five innings and six strikeouts, and he has given up more than two earned runs just one time in that stretch. The Mets, sitting at 36 and 52 and more than 15 games back in the division, are walking into Truist Park on a holiday weekend night against arguably the best lefty in the National League right now. That is a brutal assignment.

On the other side, Sean Manaea has had one of the more complicated seasons in the Mets rotation. He started the year as a reliever, moved back into a starting role in late May, and has been steadying out since, posting a 3.33 ERA over his last eight appearances. His final line against the Blue Jays earlier this week was six innings, two earned runs, six strikeouts and zero walks, and his velocity has ticked back up to 91 to 93 mph, a meaningful jump from where he was in April. The Braves are still without Ronald Acuña Jr., who has been out since mid-June with a hamstring strain, which takes their most dangerous offensive weapon off the field and gives Manaea a more manageable lineup to navigate tonight.

The one genuine flag is the weather. First pitch at 8:08 PM ET will be 90°F with a 15 to 21 percent chance of precipitation and a light 3 to 4 mph wind. July Fourth heat in Atlanta means the ball will carry slightly better than normal at Truist Park, which sits at 1,055 feet of elevation and already plays warmer than most parks. The wind is nearly dead though, which limits that effect significantly. Matt Olson has 22 home runs and will be the biggest threat for a big fly if Manaea leaves anything over the middle.

Sale makes this a quality under setup. Lock it in.

POTD: 7.4.2026