TLDR: Belgium playing the US in a home world cup game would be pretty even but Belgium is tactically exposed, older at key positions and way less rested after going into extra time against Senegal.

Why the US could lose:

Belgium are 122 points higher than the US in Elo ratings. That's a a lot. Their ø-Market value (average player value) is €21m compared to the US €14m. The US hasn't beaten Belgium since 1930 and they last time they faced off in a friendly within the past year the US lost 5-2.

Belgium is a better team with better players. Full stop.

Why the US could win:

Belgium's average age 28 is slightly older than the US at 27. This is pretty negligible however doesn't tell the whole story. Their anchor players carrying over from their golden generation are all in their mid 30s (Courtois, Lukaku, De Bruyne). This wouldn't be as big of a disadvantage for them except they only have three days rest and just played 120 minutes against Senegal. So the US is fresher and younger and so many other intangibles are going their way from the home field to exposed Belgian strategy.

The table is tilted in every way possible toward the US.

X-factors:

Balogun is back but that's only with a day of preparation. Finding out the news this late is a slight disadvantage to the US and motivation to Belgium compared to if the saga never happened. Belgium defend in a zonal 4-4-2 system. Details might need to be shifted but they don't have to change their basic preparation for Balo.

Don't let people tell you this was FIFA doing the right thing or helping the US. The ref that handed out the red card to Balo, was implicated in a match-fixing scandal in Brazil for handing out irregular cards. FIFA is just covering their ass.

Lukaku is still scary but old and injury prone. He's played less than 90' total for his club in the past year and just had to play almost an entire game against Senegal three days ago. He will either start if Belgium tries to steal an early goal or sub on late in the second half if the US is tied/winning and he will be a threat.

The Coaches

Poch has faced off against Rudi Garcia twice but only once in a game that mattered and smoked him 4-0, before allowing some late goals to bring it to 4-2. Granted it Poch had a stacked PSG team with Mbappe, Neymar and Angel Di Maria, but the Lyon team was no slouch either with a bunch of internationals including Depay, Cherki, Marcello, Diallo and Paqueta.

The Strategy

The US hasn't played all its cards, Belgium has. Tactically Poch hasn't had to use all the tools as his disposal, only the obvious ones. Most the US attacks have been playing up the wings and teams have had to account for this committing numbers to the sides. However the other foot hasn't had to drop yet and the team hasn't needed to add that sustained attack up the middle when opposition teams are stretched to the wings. If the US goes down a goal or is tied going into the second half expect some surprises.

Belgium on the other hand had to throw everything out there to claw their way from behind against Senegal. They don't have anything left we haven't seen. Tactically they've shown everything they have, and three days is a very short time line to build something new.

I can't begin to explain how scary this is for the Belgian coaching staff. Your opponent has a world-class coach and hasn't had to dip into their bag of tricks. Ever. They automatically qualified for the World Cup and haven't been behind in a match with any stakes in over a year. Belgian on the other hand during this world cup cycle have been behind against Egypt, Senegal, Wales, Kazakhstan and draws late into games with Iran and North Macedonia. For Belgium coaches it's like playing poker but your opponent can see all your cards.

Century Link Field/Seattle Stadium

It sounds like exaggeration but you cannot undersell how loud this crowd will be. If you've been there you know and it's not just Seahawks football, this is cultural to the Pacific Northwest. Husky Stadium a few miles away is the loudest in college football and Mariners games (when the team isn't going decades without a playoff appearance) is one of the loudest in baseball. NFL away teams literally train with speakers on the sidelines of their practice field to prepare for it. This is noise that causes earthquakes. It's not just football. The MLS Cup in 2019 was doing the same.

It's not something Belgium is really preparing (from what I'm aware of) and will absolutely catch them off guard.

There's no way to explain this other than just saying bluntly; It's just really fucking loud. I've been to games all over the world and theres nothing in Europe thats like this. There's nothing on the planet that's really like this.

The Odds

Markets have it dead even but markets aren't designed show predictive results, they're designed to get people to risk money and diminish risk for the house. Nate Silver's PELE rankings (a hybrid of Elo and Lineup Equilibria, uninfluenced by where money is being put in) are probably the most accurate and have the US at 52%, Belgium at 48%. I think this is the closest to reality but flawed because it doesn't account for rest and strategy.

Erasing all the other factors the current US team facing Belgium in a home World Cup game would be about 50/50. But all of the other context matters a metric fuck ton.

An extra time team facing an opponent who won their previous game in 90 mins loses roughly 60-65% of the time. Factor on top of that Belgium had one less day of rest going from the group stage to the knockout round and things start to look more dire for them.

Starting with the the PELE simulations:

• US: 52%, Belgium 48%
• Factoring in rest and extra time +15% to the US
• Stadium factor: +2%
• Factoring coaching strategy +5% to the US

Final assessment:

• US: 74%
• Belgium: 26%

Belgium need to score early before they hit a wall and then park the bus. If this game is tied going into extra time odds swing way in favor of the US, but that also kills the US chances against Portugal or Spain if they advance.