How are people trading CPI releases without getting crushed by IV?
I've never really found a good way to trade CPI with 0DTE options. Even when the move goes the way I expected, IV coming out of the event usually takes a lot of the trade with it, and the first few minutes after the release can be a mess.
Lately I've been looking at other ways to play the number itself instead of the options around it. FanDuel Predicts has CPI markets where it's basically a Yes/No contract on the outcome, so I don't have to think about greeks or IV at all. It feels more straightforward if the goal is just taking a view on the data release.
I still wouldn't use it for hedging or anything like that, but for a simple directional bet on CPI, it's been easier for me.
Anyone else using prediction markets for macro events, or do you still stick with options?
Posted Jul 6, 2026, 1:10 PM UTC