How realistic is 2030 Pot 1?

Let’s assume the format is the same in 2030 and there are 12 Pot 1 teams. Spain, Portugal and, Morocco automatically claim three spots, but the Centennial hosts do not. Assuming they qualify, that leaves nine spots for:
-England
-Argentina
-Brazil
-Germany
-Netherlands
-Belgium
-France
-Two more

What would it take over the next four years for the US to get one of the last two Pot 1 slots? Who else is in the mix?