SPCX float could rise from ~5% to ~51% by December. What happens to the stock price?
SpaceX currently has only about 5% of its total shares available for public trading, creating an unusually tight float.
Based on the reported lockup schedule, the percentage of SpaceX shares eligible to trade could rise significantly over the next year, reaching approximately 51% by December 2026 and nearly 97% by June 2027.
The chart shows both the SPCX closing-price history through July 10 and the estimated increase in tradable shares over time.
The big question is what happens when supply increases. Employees, early investors, and other shareholders may choose to sell some of their holdings for diversification or liquidity. On the other hand, additional float could improve liquidity, attract more institutional investors, and make the stock easier for large funds to own.
So what matters more over the next year:
1. Increased selling pressure as locked-up shares become tradable, or
2. Growing institutional and retail demand, along with SpaceX earnings growth and execution?
I’m interested in how others are thinking about the unlock schedule. Do you expect the major unlock periods to create meaningful buying opportunities, or do you think demand will absorb the additional supply without a major decline?
Posted Jul 10, 2026, 7:24 PM UTC