Estimating completion time for July 2025 cohort

If we look at the actual decrease in the queue size month after month, that may provide an estimate of how long it will take.

This is specifically for the July 2025 cohort, but you might be able to do something similar for your cohort using this thread.

Chronological (oldest → now): 15,800 → 14,500 → 13,000 → 11,700 → 11,300 → 10,500 → 10,200

Monthly processed (oldest to newest): 1,300, 1,500, 1,300, 400, 800, 300

• Slowest: 300 · Fastest: 1,500
• Average: ~933/mo · Median: 1,050/mo

First 3 months averaged ~1,367/mo; the last 3 months average just ~500/mo. The pace is slowing down.

Time to clear 10,200:

Absolute bounds from a single best/worst month: ~7 months (at 1,500) to ~34 months (at 300).