Went through every 2025 pass and rush play with an EPA model — here are 5 guys whose efficiency says they should be drafted higher than they are.

Been doing a deep dive into 2025 PBP data over the past few weeks and kept flagging the same players over and over — guys where the underlying efficiency numbers are genuinely elite but the volume or situation hasn't fully caught up yet. Wanted to share what I found and get some other perspectives because a couple of these surprised me.

The core question I was trying to answer: who already proved they can produce at a high level but just didn't get enough opportunity to show it? Not breakout hopefuls, not vibes-based takes — players where the data from 2025 is legitimately strong.

Dalton Kincaid, TE — BUF

I went into this expecting Kittle or Kelce to top the EPA/target leaderboard at tight end. It was Kincaid. He finished 2025 with the highest EPA/target among all TEs with 50+ targets at +0.818 — ahead of both of them. He caught 48 of 61 targets for 682 yards and 7 TDs at a 78.7% catch rate and was productive across all three downs. YAC was strong too at 6.1 per reception.

The obvious counterargument is that 61 targets isn't a real TE1 workload, and that's fair. But it also means the floor is low and the upside is huge. Josh Allen is one of the best QBs in the league and if he starts targeting Kincaid at an 80-90 target pace you're looking at a genuine top-3 TE finish. Is anyone else buying into him or has the low volume scared people off?

Sam LaPorta, TE — DET

LaPorta only played 9 games but the per-game numbers were really hard to ignore. He posted the second-highest EPA/target among all TEs at +0.743, caught 40 of 49 targets at an 81.6% catch rate and averaged 6.8 YAC per reception. At his per-game pace that's 5.4 targets and 54 yards in one of the better passing offenses in the league.

The health concerns are legitimate and I'm not dismissing them. But the market is going to price in that injury risk and push him down boards, and I think that's exactly where the value is. A full 17 games at that pace projects into top-3 TE territory. Curious how low people are willing to take him because of the injury history.

Alec Pierce, WR — IND

This one genuinely surprised me. Pierce ranked second in EPA/target out of 132 receivers with 50+ targets in 2025 at +0.664 — only Nacua was higher. And the context around it matters: Daniel Jones threw him 62 of his 82 targets at a 19.6 ADOT with a +0.559 EPA/target. I kept seeing the narrative that Jones was holding Pierce back but the data doesn't support that at all. Jones was actively going deep to him and the results were elite.

Jones is back in 2026 and that pairing has a proven sample. On top of that Pittman is gone and he had 114 targets last year — nearly 20% of everything Indy threw. That volume has to land somewhere. If Pierce absorbs even half of it you're looking at 130+ targets at this efficiency level. I don't think his ADP reflects any of that yet. Am I missing something about why people aren't higher on him?

Tee Higgins, WR — CIN

11 TDs in 15 games. The number that gets missed is that Burrow only threw Higgins 35 of his 98 targets before going down — Flacco got 44, Browning got 20. Burrow posted 5 TDs and a +0.559 EPA/target in his stretch with Higgins. Flacco somehow kept the TD rate going with 6 more. Browning contributed zero.

What stood out in the route data is that 8 of his 11 TDs came on GO routes and POST routes. This isn't garbage time production or short red zone targets — he's winning deep contested looks and that production is directly tied to how Burrow uses him. Burrow is healthy and starting in 2026 and I think a full season of that pairing is being massively underrated right now. What's everyone's current ADP on him?

Keaton Mitchell, RB — LAC

Last year backing up Derrick Henry, Mitchell ran for 5.78 YPC at +0.044 EPA/carry in 12 games. Henry ran for 5.20 YPC at +0.030 EPA/carry behind the same line. Mitchell was more efficient on every per-carry metric and ripped off 4 runs of 20+ yards in limited work.

He signed with the Chargers where Mike McDaniel is the new OC. If you watched what McDaniel did with Achane and Mostert in Miami you know exactly why this matters. His wide zone scheme is built for explosive, decisive backs who can find the cutback lane and make something out of nothing — and that's exactly what Mitchell showed behind Henry. Hampton handles the feature back duties and the bulk of the carries, but in McDaniel's system the complementary back has always been dangerous. The efficiency is proven. The role is the question mark. This one is more speculative than the others but the ceiling if it develops feels really underpriced right now.

Anyway those are the five that kept jumping out at me — would love to know if people are seeing the same things or if there's something I'm missing on any of them. Also curious who else fits this profile because I'm sure I haven't caught everything. Drop your names below, especially if you have someone flying under the radar with strong underlying numbers that the box score isn't showing.