[SPC Update] Severe Weather Outlook (Issued: 7:32 AM CDT, July 11) | Today: Slight | Tor: 2% (CIG 0)

Full Forecast and Technical Discussion: SPC Convective Outlooks

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Day 1 Outlook — Issued: 7:32 AM CDT, July 11

Categorical Map: https://preview.redd.it/bwjyqa8xplch1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4cd613d6f4d38e18b2ea3a9599416de9bceec29

Tornado/Prob Map: https://preview.redd.it/k303j9cxplch1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=c87980214fd320c0021b60e6b078bf982f9ca646

Forecast Valid From: Mar 11, 8:00 AM CDT — Mar 12, 7:00 AM CDT

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

SUMMARY: Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds will be possible today from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Severe wind gusts may also occur across portions of southern Arizona.

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Day 2 Outlook — Issued: 1:00 AM CDT, July 11

Categorical Map: https://preview.redd.it/rikqkrsxplch1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef145265afd2b80f6d7b9d186cb29a855d23f2e5

Tornado/Prob Map: https://preview.redd.it/lx1rx80yplch1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c45e97c3039f6895f9811235385939300938d61

Forecast Valid From: Mar 12, 7:00 AM CDT — Mar 13, 7:00 AM CDT

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...

SUMMARY: Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday, with the greatest potential across South Carolina. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Arizona late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

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Day 3 Outlook — Issued: 2:28 AM CDT, July 11

Categorical Map: https://preview.redd.it/joy6bsdyplch1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=f40506bbbed04eed36a045aefc01aa92a73b595e

Probability Map: https://preview.redd.it/dckwhkiyplch1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=43becae354dac0a9eda4d97df87123517b52b01b

Forecast Valid From: Mar 13, 7:00 AM CDT — Mar 14, 7:00 AM CDT

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...

SUMMARY: A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from northern Florida into much of South Carolina.

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Day 4-8 Extended Outlook

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Forecast Valid From: Mar 14, 7:00 AM CDT — Mar 19, 7:00 AM CDT

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central United States will build westward during the upcoming week in response to a series of mid-level troughs moving through central Canada. These troughs will help to carve out a seasonably strong trough across eastern Canada. By the end of the week, the US ridge will be centered over the Rockies with the eastern Canada trough centered over Quebec.