Have we underestimated Laurence Fox's chances in the Clacton by-election?

Laurence Fox lives in Peldon, a village south of Colchester, not far from the eastern border of the Clacton constituency. Restore have been taking quite a few votes from Reform recently, partly because Farage distances himself from Tommy Robinson. However Reform are not standing, and Laurence Fox is far more supportive of Tommy Robinson than anyone in Restore, appearing at his rallies in London.

Given Laurence Fox has gone to the trouble of setting up, and maintaining, a political party, i.e. Reclaim, given by-elections are associated with protest votes, with Restore not running, with, I expect, quite a large proportion of Farage's support base in Clacton being Tommy Robinson fans, with Fox having been appearing daily on TV, recently, in repeats of Lewis, I imagine Fox will, correctly, see this by-election as his best ever chance to win a seat.

Maybe Tommy Robinson will come and support him on the doorstep. I am local to the area and I've heard Tommy Robinson has been seen in Mr Fox's local having a beer with him. If he ends up splitting the "stop the boats" vote, Binface might actually have a realistic chance of winning this, and if he does really well he might win it himself. I posit this has now become a three horse race. Someone, please, publish an opinion poll!