Is this DC Housing Market Finally Turning?

It's no secret that the DC Housing Market, especially condominiums, has struggled since pandemic days. It was the perfect storm of events... the work-from-home world gave people the freedom to live away from their home office, low rates allowed many to purchase a larger home in the close-in commuting burbs, small businesses closed due to reduced foot traffic, and crime rose. The obvious rise in rates also crushed affordability, and 2025 DOGE fears caused even more people to hold off as life became less predictable.

From my conversations with buyers/sellers, all of the above had a major impact on where people decided to live and invest. In 2023-2024 specifically, it seemed like almost every conversation involved getting out of the city. NW, and other established neighborhoods in the city, bucked the trend.

It's not uncommon for me to see a condo selling for a price last seen in 2017. Think about that, just outside the city, housing prices have jumped 25-50%, while parts of DC are selling at decade-old prices.

But to me, it feels like the tide is turning. YTD 2026, my team has had 3x more 'I want to buy in DC' conversations than 2023, 2024, and 2025 combined. That's a meaningful shift.

Why is that? Well, a lot of reasons. For one, work-from-home seems to have unwound in spectacular fashion. In fact, I can barely get couples on the phone during the day anymore because they are both working...calls now begin on the evening commute home due to being in the office all day. Small businesses are starting to thrive again. Crime has been improving since 2024. The city has two major reinvestment projects (Capital One Arena renovation, the RFK stadium site).

Now that prices have mostly rebalanced throughout much of the city, mortgage rates have stopped jumping into the 7s, and jobs/incomes have remained stable (and increasing) despite the DOGE impact, I think we will look back on 2026 as the turnaround year. It really reminds me a lot of 2012, when buyers began moving into the condo market with some confidence...when the rent vs buy payments started looking more appealing.

I'm curious if you have seen or experienced what I mentioned above. I'm basing all this on my conversations with people, data from my team (a regional mortgage company), and personal observations from 25 years in the market. Let me know if you think I'm off base here. I'd love to get your thoughts.