Big week ahead. Earnings, Fed testimony, inflation data. All in one week

What happened Friday, Saturday, Sunday

Friday

• S&P 500 up 0.42% to 7,575. Nasdaq up 0.29%. Dow up 0.29% to 52,637.
• Meta jumped 6% on Friday alone. Best week since early 2024 with a nearly 15% gain in one week. Why? Bank of America said Meta is quietly improving its AI cost structure. Less spending, better results. That's exactly what markets want to see.
• SK Hynix made its US debut on Nasdaq. Stock priced at $149, opened at $170, closed up 13%. Blockbuster debut. South Korean memory chip giant now listed in the US.
• Delta Airlines beat earnings but stock fell 3%. Why? CEO warned jet fuel prices staying high even as oil falls. Classic good earnings, bad guidance situation.
• Circle Internet Group up 13% after getting US government approval to launch a crypto bank. Coinbase and other crypto stocks also jumped.
• WD40. Yes the household lubricant company. Jumped 15% after crushing earnings. Sometimes the most boring companies give the best surprises.
• Trump said the US considers the Iran ceasefire over. Oil spiked briefly. Then he said talks would continue. Oil fell back. This back and forth is becoming a weekly pattern.

Weekend

• S&P 500 sits just 0.45% below its all time high. One good day and we're at records again.
• S&P 500 up 10.7% year to date. Strong position heading into the most important earnings week of the year.
• Iran situation still unclear. Ceasefire technically broken but talks continuing. Oil markets on edge.
• Global oil inventories at the lowest levels in recorded history according to energy intelligence firm Kpler. That's worth noting quietly.
• Warren Buffett quote circulating this weekend. "Bad news is an investor's best friend." Relevant given everything going on.

This week is the biggest week of Q3 so far

Three massive things happening simultaneously.

1. Bank earnings Tuesday JPMorgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Bank of America all report Tuesday morning. This is huge. Banks will tell us everything about consumer spending, credit conditions, loan demand and the real state of the economy. Not just headlines. The actual picture underneath.

2. Fed Chair Warsh testifies to Congress Tuesday First ever Congressional testimony from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. He has to answer questions publicly about rates, inflation and the economy. Markets will hang on every word. Any hint of rate hikes sends markets down. Any dovish signal sends markets up.

3. Inflation data Tuesday June CPI drops Tuesday morning. If inflation is still sticky, rate hike probability goes up. If it's cooling, markets breathe easier. Three massive market moving events on the same day. Tuesday could be a wild one.

Also this week

• Wednesday. Producer Price Index data. Morgan Stanley, Johnson & Johnson, United Airlines earnings.
• Thursday. Netflix earnings. Big one for streaming and consumer spending.
• Friday. TSMC and ASML earnings. Two of the most important semiconductor companies in the world. Will set tone for chip stocks for rest of quarter.

Oil and Iran. The wildcard

This is the one thing nobody can predict but everyone needs to watch.

• Global oil inventories at lowest recorded levels ever
• Strait of Hormuz traffic dropped from 33 tankers per day average to just 13 on Wednesday last week. That's a 60% drop.
• Ceasefire technically over but talks continuing
• Any full escalation = oil spikes to $90+ = inflation rises = Fed forced to hike = markets fall hard
• Any real peace deal = oil drops to $60s = inflation eases = Fed softens = markets rally

Oil price is the single most important number to watch every morning this week.

Sectors I'm watching

Banks

• KBW Bank Index up nearly 20% between end of March and late June
• Higher rates actually help banks earn more on loans
• Tuesday earnings will tell us if that story holds

Tech and AI

• Meta's week showed what markets want. Less spending, better margins, actual AI revenue.
• Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD all recovering. Chips bouncing back after last week's Samsung selloff.
• TSMC and ASML Friday will be the definitive read on chip demand

Healthcare

• Vertex bought Crinetics for $10 billion last week. Healthcare M&A heating up.
• Eli Lilly still near all time highs
• Johnson & Johnson reports Wednesday. Watch for GLP-1 drug competition commentary.

Crypto quietly moving

• Circle getting a bank license is a big deal for crypto legitimacy
• Bitcoin holding above $58,000
• Institutional crypto adoption accelerating quietly while everyone watches AI

What analysts are saying about the year

• Ed Yardeni, respected market researcher, expects S&P 500 to end 2026 at 8,250. That's another 10% from here.
• Earnings growth expected above 20% for second straight quarter. That's rare and impressive.
• BMO Capital said almost all of S&P 500's gains this year are from real earnings growth, not just hype. That's healthy.

Risks this week

• Iran flaring up again. Oil the wild card all week.
• Tuesday triple threat. Banks + Fed testimony + CPI all same day. Massive volatility possible.
• 10 year Treasury yield creeping toward 5%. If it hits 5%, Fed will likely hike. Watch this number.
• Chip stocks still fragile after last week's Samsung selloff. TSMC and ASML Friday could go either way.

My honest take

Last week ended well. Markets held up despite Iran drama, chip pressure and a hawkish Fed. S&P 500 is practically at all time highs again. The earnings picture is genuinely strong. But Tuesday is one of the most packed single days in markets I can remember in a while. Banks, Fed, inflation all at once. Whatever happens Tuesday sets the tone for the rest of July.

Watching closely. Not overthinking it.

What are you watching most closely this week? Drop below 👇

Not financial advice, just my personal observations. Always do your own research before investing.