Hi everyone,  
I’m currently training for the Sydney Marathon and would love some honest opinions on whether a sub-3:15 finish is realistic for me.  
My current PBs/recent performances are:  
5km: sub-20 minutes  
10km: 40:56  
Half marathon: 1:31:55  
And i’ve attached a recent long run so you can see heart rate etc as I think it may be quite high - this was my 30km PB but also didn’t have a lot of elevation gain 

I’m currently running around 70–80km per week. My typical long runs are between 30km and 35km, generally averaging around 4:40–4:50/km depending on the session. Some are steady throughout, while others include a faster finish or sections close to my intended marathon pace. For example, I recently completed 33km at approximately 4:42/km.  
My current plan would be to start slightly conservatively rather than forcing 4:37/km immediately, then gradually settle into goal pace.  
Based on these times and long runs, does sub-3:15 seem like a realistic goal, or would something closer to 3:20 be more sensible?   
I also know the Sydney course isn’t particularly fast and has some difficult hills, especially later in the race, so I’d be interested to hear how much people think that should affect my target.  
tips and advice is also very welcome but 40 days out means the date is quickly approaching  
Thanks!

sub 3:15 marathon