Nebius Q2 Earnings: What to look out for (ARR increase, new deals, etc)

Speculation

The last 2 weeks have been filled with an avalanche of positive PR's, Im getting very excited about the Q2 earnings early August.

But what to look out for? Here are my expectations broken down, happy to get everyone's input on these:

1) Nebius will raise their ARR forecast for end of Year to 9 to 11B ARR

They have been guiding for 7 to 9B ARR end of 2026. I expect them to raise this to 9 to 11B for end of 2026. Why?

- Introduction of their new Asset Light Partner model. This new model will be a game changer, especially combined with NVIDIA's announcement around a new GPU revenue share model. This combination will propel Nebius and will open us a massive new revenue stream, whereby NVIDIA will most likely will work very closely with Nebius to scale their initiative quickly. The Nebius Partner press release stated: "The company has already entered into initial arrangements under this asset-light model."

Expect new announcements around new clients and additional ARR! Also this new business model reshuffles all future ARR and revenue targets, which might go up dramatically for the coming years.

2) A number of new GPU sites across the world announced.

Nebius has been on a recruiting rampage and a number of job posts, revealed possible new GPU sites. India, Singapore, Estonia, US and possibly other sites will be announced.

3) Turn-over increase because of 30% price hike and early/ on time DC activation (10 to 20% increase Q3 and Q4)

This one also ties in to number 1, but the logic here is purely based on their existing business model, whereby they own or lease DC's. Early June they announced a 30% hike in GPU's rental prices. Combine this with new sites in France, Spain, Israel, UK, maybe Finland and others going live sooner then expected, and this will really increase Q3 and Q4 revenue forecast with 10 to 20% I assume.

4) New (and final) Hyperscaler announcement?

On this one Im more reserved. Google yesterday stated that they will rent from 3rd parties in their earnings report. Nebius has signaled to possibly add one more Hyperscaler to the mix, I give it a 40% chance and Google would be most likely.

5) What did I miss?

Let me have your thoughts!

Posted Jul 23, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC

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