Some math for why you might not want to be pulling on the "rate up" banner in Dreams

I saw people in Irys' stream telling her that she was pulling on the "wrong" banner by pulling the standard banner (Holodori gacha) vs the three choice rate up banner (Beginner's Support banner). As someone familiar with gacha mechanics, I just wanted to post a quick analysis of why I think most people (Specifically f2p and low spenders) might want to consider pulling on the standard banner.

FACTS TO KEEP IN MIND:

• Both banners have the same chance of giving 5 star members (5%). So you should only be pulling on the Beginner's Support banner if you are more interested in 1-3 members over the rest of the cast in totality.
• Keep in mind that you already got to select a 5 star of your choice at the beginning of the game, so this is presumably for a 2nd-4th oshi
• The banners DO NOT SHARE EXCHANGE POINTS.
• The Beginner's Support banner ends in 6 days. ANY EXCHANGE POINTS FOR THIS BANNER NOT SPENT BY THEN WILL BE CONVERTED TO HOLOSTICKERS.
• The Holodori Gacha is permanent, as are its exchange points. Thus, if you just want 5 stars in general, the Holodori Gacha is generally the better choice as you make steady, unlosable progress towards a 5 star selection

So the questions you should ask are:

1. Will you be able to reach 200 exchange points in 6 days?
2. If not, are you better off having higher odds of getting the specific characters for x amount of rolls, or should you make x rolls worth of progress on the Holodori Gacha towards a selectable 5 star?

You can calculate your odds of success by using a binomial calculator, here are some possible scenarios for the Beginner's Support banner

• If you want one specific member and you do 50 pulls, you have a 38.5% chance of getting at least one from your pulls
• In 100 pulls, you have a 48.8% chance of getting them from your pulls
• If you are satisfied with any of your three choices and do 50 pulls, you have a 63.6% chance of getting at least one from your pulls
• In 100 pulls, you have a 86.7% chance of getting at least one from your pulls

These odds are obviously much better than getting a specific member on the Holodori Gacha banner (4.5% in 50 pulls or 8.9% in 100 pulls), but remember that if you do not reach 200 exchange points in 6 days, they will expire. Whereas 50 pulls on the Holodori Gacha gets you a quarter of the way towards a GUARANTEED 5 star of your choice.

I emphasize the guaranteed aspect since that is the most powerful word in gacha games. You might think 86.7% sounds good enough, but that means more than 1 out of every 10 players will fail even with 100 pulls and three targets. And if you lose your exchange points, you have essentially wasted 100 pulls.

TLDR: Unless you can reach 200 pulls on the Beginner's Support gacha in 6 days, please consider whether you're comfortable risking your pulls with no failsafe, or if you'd rather play it safe and make permanent progress towards a 5 star of your choice.